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NFL: Tennessee at New England Preview and Free Pick

January 11, 2018
cold foxbotough

Tennessee shocked KC last week defeating them 22-21. They now head to New England to take on the heavily favored Patriots. The Patriots are favored to win the game (-13) as well as the Super Bowl (+175). The total is 48 points. Both the spread and total have no clear favorite by the betting public. Both are darn near 50/50.

New England is 13-3 SU and 11-5 ATS. Tennessee is 10-7 and 9-7-1 ATS. Tennessee is upside when it comes to scoring ratios. They allow 22 for every 20 they score. But somehow have a winning record. The Patriots allow 18 points for every 28  points they score. When you study these numbers it is no surprise that New England is favored by 13. That is a huge number for a playoff game.

Head to head Tennessee has the short end of the stick having won just 1 out of 8 games played. They are just 2-6 ATS vs. New England lifetime. They last played in December of 2015 and it was a mudstomping by New England. They won 33-16.

Here are some trends from this season to consider:

Tennessee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Tennessee is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee’s last 7 games

New England is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games
New England is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England’s last 5 games

Based on the statistics mentioned above and a cold miserable day for a weather report I suggest that the UNDER 48 is a safe play. I can see the score landing right on a thirteen point win or either side of it, taking away any real advantage for the bettor. New England is good at piling on points late so you may see them score at the very end to cover but I wouldn’t bet on it.

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