NFL Free Pick: Seattle Seahawks vs. LA Rams
November 7, 2018
The Los Angeles Rams train to an undefeated season got derailed by Hurricane Drew and the New Orleans Saints last week. Now they are listed at best sports betting sites as 10-point favorites over the Seattle Seahawks in Week 10.
Can Pete Carroll and his 4-4 Seahawks cover a double-digit spread? Let’s break it down.
Seahawks @ Rams
The Rams opened up as 8.5-point favorites, but in just one day, massive betting action on the Los Angeles Rams has pushed the number up to 10. We shouldn’t be surprised to see the spread getting pushed even higher as the week goes on before people start to come back the other way.
After a slow start, the Seahawks went on a beautiful stretch of both winning and covering the spread. Before getting obliterated at home as 1-point favorites by Phillip Rivers and the LA Chargers, Seattle was on a 4-1 run. They looked to be returning to form after a horrendous 0-2 start. That only loss came to none other than the Rams, and by a mere two points. In that stretch, the Hawks drilled the Cowboys 24-13, the Cardinals (who always seem to play tough against Seattle) 20-17, the Raiders 27-3, and the Lions, 28-14 in the Motor City.
So we have to wonder why the books are dropping such a heavy opening number against the Seahawks? Is it because of a bounce-back theory? Do they think the Rams are going to take their double-digit loss to the Saints out on the Seahawks?
ATS Trend Conundrum
Over the last ten meetings, the Rams hold a 6-4 advantage when it comes to straight up wins, but the ATS record is 5-5. To refine that, the Rams are 5-1 ATS against the Seahawks while playing at home. If we get a little more recent, things start to get interesting. The Rams are only 1-4-1 over their last six games. The Seahawks have covered in four out of their last six games and are 8-3 SU in recent history while on the road.
The Rams hold a trend advantage against the Seattle Seahawks, but recent ATS performances by each team make you think twice about blindly betting the Rams at double-digits. Overall, the Rams are 5-6 (45.5%) as home favorites since 2017 and Seattle is 3-4-1 (42.9%) as away dogs through the same period. So, there isn’t much advantage to be found on either side with that situation.
The Rams are not as mighty on defense as we previously thought. They have toed the line on multiple games, including against Seattle a four weeks ago, but Jared Goff and Todd Gurley got them out of it … until they met the Saints.
People forget that the Seahawks have a great defense. In fact, the Hawks boast the No. 2 road defensive, which is No. 3 in passing yards and No. 5 in rushing yards. LA has the No. 9 home defense and No. 4 home offense. Still, we have to think that the Rams will win this game, but by more than 10 points? That is difficult. Remember, the Seahawks put up 31 on the Rams a few short weeks ago. The biggy here is the status of Chris Carson. He posted 119 yards on Los Angeles the last time these two teams met. If he plays, Seattle has a chance to keep it close.
Seahawks-Rams Prediction
Wait the number out and see if you can’t find the Seattle Seahawks off of the key number 10 and pick them up at +10.5 or more. This one is going to come down to timing. Watch the lines and try to time it before Seattle money starts to come in. Worst case scenario, buy the half-point to get off the key.
