Odds Against Dak Prescott in Rookie Debut on Sunday
January 12, 2017
The divisional round of the NFL playoffs take place this weekend with four teams coming of byes against four that played last weekend. One of the teams that enjoyed a bye week will feature a rookie at quarterback making his postseason debut.
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott looks to lead the Cowboys to victory over the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. However, the odds are not in his favor. Rookie quarterbacks have not been the best bets during postseason play in the NFL.
Prescott will be the 16th rookie quarterback to start a playoff game since 1992. His 15 predecessors are 8-15 straight up and 11-12 against the spread. Six of the 15 won their debut in the playoffs, with the most recent being Russell Wilson in 2012 with the Seattle Seahawks.
Wilson, Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger, Mark Sanchez, T.J. Yates and Shaun King all won their playoff debut at quarterback.
However, a number of successful quarterbacks, including one now in the Hall of Fame, did not fare well in their debut playoff start during their rookie season.
Andy Dalton, Matt Ryan, Jim Everett, Bernie Kosar, Andrew Luck and Dan Marino the aforementioned Hall of Famer, all were beaten in their debuts in the postseason as rookie.
The most recent rookie quarterback to debut as a starter in the playoffs was Connor Cook last weekend. He was third string and inactive most of the season and that showed as he threw three interceptions in the Oakland Raiders loss to Houston 27-14.
Not a single rookie signal caller has ever led his team to the Super Bowl. However, Flacco, King, Sanchez and Roethlisberger all led their respective teams to their conference championship games as rookies.
Three quarterbacks that were starters as rookies during the postseason are alive this season in the playoffs – Wilson, Ryan and Roethlisberger.
Of the three, Roethlisberger debuted at home, while the other two debuted on the road.
Prescott will play at home Sunday against the Packers. Rookie quarterbacks at home are 3-5 SU, 2-6 ATS and 1-3 ATS as home chalk.
In rookie debut games during the postseason, the OVER has cashed 10 times in 19 games. The total in those 19 games only exceeded 50 points on one occasion and the Dallas-Green Bay game currently has a total line of 52.
Prescott has already played Green Bay during Week 6 on the road at Lambeau Field and beat the Packers 30-16 throwing three touchdowns.
