Super Bowl XLIX Preview, Trends and Prediction
February 1, 2015
The big game has finally arrived, Super Bowl XLIX will kick off today in Glendale, Arizona at University of Phoenix Stadium at 6:30 ET between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks.
The current line has New England favored by 1 point with the point total sitting on 48. There are a few betting sites that have flipped the line and now have Seattle favored by a single point. There has been quite of bit of movement on the line for a Super Bowl, but much of that is due to the spread being so close to zero.
Seattle is 8-0 straight up and 6-1-1 against the spread in its past eight games played and is still the underdog.
In the past seven Super Bowls, the underdogs hold a record of 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS. The Patriots combination of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are just 1-4 ATS in 5 Super Bowl appearances.
The OVER has cashed in 9 of the past 12 playoff appearances for Seattle. New England is just 1-9 against the number in its last 10 games played on natural grass. The Patriots are 4-11 against the spread in their past 15 playoff appearances. Seattle has covered the number in 10 of its past 13 games played on grass.
The two teams played head-to-head last in October of 2012 with Seattle winning at home 24-23 and covering a 3.5-point spread as the underdog.
One key to this game will be if the Patriots defense can stop the league leading rushing attack of Seattle. The Patriots have not been easy to run on, but have not faced many standout rushers.
Power runs are those on third or fourth down with 2 or less yards to make a first down. Defensively New England was last in the league in stopping that, while Seattle was second in the league in converting those on offense. Advantage Seattle.
The passing attack for New England is dangerous with Brady throwing to targets like Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and Brandon LaFell. The Seattle secondary is banged up. Advantage New England.
Earl Thomas the starting safety for Seattle dislocated his shoulder two weeks ago and will not be 100%.
Prediction: New England 27-24.
