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Sweet 16 Free Pick – Against the Public Play

March 21, 2018

Tomorrow is the start of the Sweet 16. There will be four games tomorrow and four on Friday. The betting public has had plenty of time to throw their money down and that means we can evaluate the public betting numbers and see if there is a pick to be had.

In our last ATP (against the public) article we had two clear-cut picks. The picks were Texas A&M and Clemson. Both had clear imbalance on money bet and on total tickets. Both picks cashed for our readers.

Remember the three rules for an ATP type play. And remember to never fudge the numbers to make it work. All three factors must be applied.

  1. Marquee game that feature two well-known teams.
  2. Lopsided action on 1) total tickets and 2) money wagered. Both must be above the 70% threshold.
  3. Within 48 hours of the event.

With these factors in mind there is just one game of the eight that fits the criteria perfectly: Gonzaga vs. Florida State

The line was issued at Gonzaga -5.5 points. As the money came piling in then line began to move. The spread is now up to Gonzaga -7 at many places. Even after the line change we see that the action has remained lopsided with 71% of the cash on Gonzaga and 75% of total tickets on the Zags as well. This makes FSU +7 a clear-cut ATP play.

If you are looking for a place to wager this pick and double your money please check out our top rated sportsbooks page. These sportsbooks have been heavily vetted.