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Inside the Numbers: Texans at Bears

November 11, 2012


It’s a marquee match-up between two powerhouse squads – a battle that many recognize as a potential Super Bowl preview: the Texans (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) versus the Bears (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS).Both teams are known for their defense: Chicago holds opponents to 15.1 PPG (2nd in the NFL) while Houston allows 17.1 PPG (3rd). These teams have only met twice in NFL history with the Texans going 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS. However, the Bears are perfect at home this season with a 4-0 SU record.
Houston Texans +1.5
Chicago Bears -1.5

There is much more than meets the eye when betting this game. The Bears have been great this season and have one of the most punishing defenses in the league. The Texans have been outright fantastic on all accounts. Their offense and defense are something to be feared and respected. But the value lies in essentially getting a point and a half in a game that should be a pick. Even though the spread is just 1.5, it is enough to sway this handicapper to say pick the Texans. If it were the Bears getting 1.5, regardless of where they played this game, I would say take them. This is a value play. The teams match up very well and are almost equal across the board.

Inside the betting numbers: 62% of the folks betting on this game feel the same way we do and have bet Houston.  That number is not significant to us in anyway and within the industry, when factoring anticipated movement pregame as well as  margin for error in reporting, is basically inconsequential . We could see this spread be driven down to a pick by game time however and in that case would still wager Houston but maybe for not as much.

For more in depth game preview please see  Texans vs Bears Free Pick on our very popular sports betting blog.