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Sugar Bowl Free Pick

January 2, 2013

Sugar Bowl
Florida Gators vs. Louisville Cardinals
8:30 PM EST, Mercedes Benz Super Dome

The Florida Gators are 11-1 straight up and only lost to the power house that are the Georgia Bulldogs. Against the spread the Gators are 7-5 this season. They were basically nine points away from playing in SEC Championship and possibly the national championship game. Pre-season I wrote that I saw the Gators probably ending up 9-3 with potential losses to South Carolina and LSU as well. But they really over-achieved this season in my book and Gator fans should be proud.

The Louisville Cardinals were not expected to be as good as they are either. The team ended 10-2 straight up and only 5-7 ATS. The team had an impressive win against UNC, Cincy and Rutgers with an embarrassing loss to UConn at home. These two teams are predicated on different styles of play.

The Florida Gators play ball control offense and a defense that is one of the best in the country (only allowing 12 points per gamer average). The Cardinals on the other hand average over 30+ points on offense and allow 23 points on defense. These two mismatches are the reason that Florida is favored by 14.5. The total is 48 points.

How do we see this game playing out? Florida has the athletic advantage. So they should win. But the 14.5 points may be a little high. So for that reason we can see Louisville covering the spread.

Pick: Louisville +14.5
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