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Futures: Darkhorse Picks for NFL Most Valuable Player

Scott Morris | August 22, 2015

Making future picks in the NFL can be tough as injuries could take place during the season, suspensions and many other unforeseen factors.

Nevertheless, the futures board for the NFL is a very popular place for bettors. One of those futures props is the NFL MVP Award.

Forecasting who will win the NFL MVP should not be all that difficult. In 7 of the past 8 seasons only three players – Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers – have won the award.

Given the odds against any one player beating the field in the MVP race, placing a bet on chalk could give a solid return.

For example, the reigning NFL MVP Green Bay quarterback Rodgers is the favorite to repeat this year on most sites at +300.

However, if you want a player vs. the field bet, where each choice is a long shot, it would make more sense to win a lottery ticket. Of course that does not mean you blindly put your faith with odds of +5000 on Cincinnati’s Andy Dalton.

However, using historic data a short list of possible winners can be found.

The first important choice is to choose a quarterback. The award has been won 18 times by a running back, but the ground game has become marginalized and most backs cannot accrue the needed stats to win the award.

A running back needs a season of historic proportion to win such as Adrian Peterson in 2012 or LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006.

Do not worry about wide receivers as not even Jerry Rice could win one in his career.

Another idea for a darkhorse would be taking a newcomer. One choice that comes to mind quickly would be Andrew Luck. However, with the second best odds at +500 there is better value elsewhere.

To win the quarterback needs to be on a team that wins 10 or more games. Since 1997 and Barry Sanders, no player on a team that won fewer than 10 games and not reached the postseason has won the MVP.

Two darkhouse Picks for MVP: Russell Wilson at +800 and Ben Roethlisberger at +1000.

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Football Sharp Action Report

9/3/25

odds by SportsBetting.ag

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MLB Sharp Action Report

9/3/25

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AP Top 25 College Football Poll

with Odds from SportsBetting.ag (Signup now for $250 in free bets)

AP TeamW/LSeason StartLive Odds
1Ohio State1-0+675+575
2Penn State1-0+700+600
3LSU1-0+1200+800
4Georgia1-0+650+650
5Miami FL1-0+2800+1200
6Oregon2-0+1200+1600
7Texas0-1+600+700
8Clemson0-1+850+1600
9Notre Dame0-1+1000+1800
10South Carolina1-0+6600+6600
11Illinois1-0+15000+15000
12Arizona St.1-0+12500+12500
13Florida1-0+3300+3300
14Florida State1-0+8000+6600
15Michigan1-0+3300+3300
16Iowa State2-0+20000+20000
17SMU1-0+10000+10000
18Oklahoma1-0+4000+2800
19Texas A&M1-0+3300+3300
20Ole Miss1-0+4000+4000
21Alabama0-1+900+1800
22Tennessee1-0+6600+8000
23Indiana1-0+12500+12500
24Texas Tech1-0+10000+12500
25Utah1-0+4000+8000