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Betting Brady in AFC Championships Games Can Be Costly

Scott Morris | January 20, 2017

The New England Patriots have not been too hot of late when it comes to AFC title games, especially for bettors.

The Patriots are 3-4 straight up and 1-6 against the spread in their past seven AFC title games. The only game of the seven they covered was in 2015 against Indianapolis, when New England routed the Colts by 38 points as 7-point chalk.

The spread for this season’s AFC Championship game against Pittsburgh looks quite similar, as it has increased on some sportsbooks to New England -6.5 points.

Early money indicated bettors feel New England will perform similar to their 2015 rout of Indianapolis when the point spread increased in the Patriots favor as the game approached.

Sportsbooks are not surprised at the early money on the Patriots. The thought of late is it is almost sure money betting with the New England.

Last week bettors saw New England cover the largest playoff spread in the history of the NFL of 16.5 points and on the season are an incredible 14-3 ATS.

If the Patriots can cover the final two games of the season, winning and covering the AFC title and then covering in Super Bowl LI, they would tie the San Francisco 49ers of 1989 as the best bet of all time in one NFL season, including the postseason.

In 1989, the 49ers were 16-3 ATS, and similar to New England this season, were tough on sportsbooks.

However, if New England is your pick for the AFC Championship game a closer look is needed at Tom Brady and how he performs in conference title games.

In 10 previous AFC title games, Brady is 6-4 SU and 4-6 ATS. The UNDER has cashed in 7 of the 10 games, including the last six straight dating back to 2007.

In the 10 AFC title games in which he has played, Brady has thrown 13 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.

This season, after sitting out the first four games due to a suspension, Brady has played nearly flawless football. The 39-year old veteran in 12 regular season games and one playoff game has 30 touchdowns and 4 interceptions.

However, his finest days on the gridiron statistically have not come while playing in AFC Championship games.

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