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NFL Free Pick: Patriots vs Broncos

November 11, 2017
Von Miller will try to bother Tom Brady in the pocket.

Sunday Night Football for Week 10 of the NFL regular season features an AFC showdown when the New England Patriots visit the Denver Broncos. The current line on top sportsbooks has New England favored by 7.5 points with the over/under point total on 44.5.

Entering this game, New England on the season is 6-2 straight up and 4-4 against the spread. On the road, the Patriots are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. Denver on the season is 3-5 SU and 2-5-1 ATS. At home, the Broncos are 3-1 SU and 2-1-1 ATS.

The Broncos are tumbling down the standings in the AFC West and things will not get any easier with the Patriots visit on Sunday night. Denver has lost four straight and now must try to stop Tom Brady and Co.

Last week, Denver was embarrassed by Philadelphia to the tune of 51-23. The Broncos played three straight road games and will be happy to return home for this game on Sunday.

New England on the other hand has won four straight games and is tied with Pittsburgh with the best AFC record. The Patriots will be well rested after having a bye last week, but Brady is 3-7 in 10 career games against the Broncos at Mile High City.

New England is averaging only 22 points per game this season, but Brady is leading the NFL with 2,540 yards passing. The veteran signal caller has thrown 16 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions.

Brady completed five passes or more to five different receivers in New England’s 21-13 win over San Diego in Week 8 prior to their bye. One of his favorite targets, Chris Logan is injured and expected to sit out Sunday’s game.

Denver’s new starting quarterback Brock Osweiler beat New England when he was with the Broncos in 2015 but that might be tough this time, as three of his best receivers and three of his starting offensive lineman are all battling different injuries which means some will not play while others will be far from 100%.

The Patriots are 3-0 on the road this season and have now won 11 straight road games.

Von Miller, Denver’s sack specialist has 7.5 sacks over his last six games against New England.

New England is 11-4 in its last 15 games versus AFC opponents.

Denver is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games versus AFC opponents.

With this free pick, we like Denver to cover.