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NFL Free Pick: Colts vs Patriots

October 4, 2018

Thursday Night Football in Week 4 of the NFL features the Indianapolis Colts visiting the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium.

The current line on top sportsbooks has New England favored by 10 points and the over/under total on 51.

The Patriots welcome back wide receiver Julian Edelman from his four-game suspension giving New England quarterback Tom Brady one of his favorite targets to pass to. Edelman missed all of last season but had 1,106 yards receiving in 2016.

Brady has not always been on the same page as his receivers through three games but last week found Cordarrelle Patterson and Phillip Dorsett each for touchdown passes in the Patriots 38-7 rout of Miami. Brady is not even in the top 20 in passing yards, yards per attempt or completion percentage after three games.

Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck bounced back from two subpar games to throw for 464 yards with four touchdowns in the Colts 37-34 loss in overtime to the Houston Texans.

However, Luck’s luck has not been good when it comes to playing New England having lost each of his five games against the Patriots. In three games played at Gillette Stadium, Luck has completed only 48% of his passes and tossed nine interceptions.

Luck will be without wide receiver T.Y Hilton who is nursing chest and hamstring injuries. Nyhiem Hines is leading the team in receptions with 22. The running back led the Colts with nine receptions and two touchdowns against Houston last week. Tight end Eric Ebron leads the Colts in touchdown receptions with three.

The running game however, for the Colts is next to nothing with Jordan Wilkins the top ground gainer with 136 yards in three games.

Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri, who is considered a legend by Patriots fans, has a sore groin and missed practice Tuesday.

Brady can count on Edelman playing on Thursday, but tight end Rob Gronkowski is questionable with an injured ankle. The Patriots tight end leads the team in receiving yards with 233 and is second in receptions with 17 behind running back James White.

New England running back Sony Michel rushed for 112 yards on 25 carries and one touchdown against Miami, becoming just the second running back for the Patriots to rush for 100 yards or more since 2016.

Prediction: New England has dominated Andrew Luck and the Colts of late and will continue to do so on Thursday. Brady has Edelman back and Michel is beginning to find holes to run through. New England wins 35-21