Largest NFL Underdogs to Win Outright
November 28, 2018
This weekend will feature one of the larger point spreads of the season when one of the NFL’s best teams visits one of the NFL’s worst teams. The 9-2 KC Chiefs wil be at the 2-9 Oakland Raiders. The points spread currently has the Chiefs -15.5 points.
Although up to 80% of the public money has been on KC to win and cover the spread, there is discussion in the betting circles about an outright Oakland win. That got us to put on our thinking caps and pull up all the data on NFL teams that were more than a two TD underdog who went on to win outright.
Earlier this year, there was a prime example of this when the Bills beat the 17 point favorite Vikings. It is a rare feat indeed in that is has only happened 14 times since 1995 (including post season play).
| Year | Game | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| 1995 | Redskins 24, Cowboys 17 | +17.5 |
| 1995 | Panthers 13, 49ers 7 | +14 |
| 1995 | Saints 11, 49ers 7 | +14 |
| 1996 | Jaguars 30, Broncos 27 * | +14 |
| 1999 | Browns 16, Steelers 15 | +14.5 |
| 2001 | Cardinals 21, Eagles 20 | +14 |
| 2001 | Patriots 20, Rams 17 ** | +14 |
| 2009 | Buccaneers 20, Saints 17 | +14 |
| 2009 | Raiders 13, Eagles 9 | +14 |
| 2010 | Vikings 24, Eagles 14 | +14 |
| 2017 | Giants 23, Broncos 10 | +14 |
| 2017 | Dolphins 20, Falcons 17 | +14 |
| 2018 | Bills 27, Vikings 6 | +17 |
* Postseason
** Super Bowl
If you’re one of the very few people on Earth that thinks the Raiders have a chance to beat the Chiefs this weekend, then you should definitely consider betting the money line. The Raiders are currently listed at +825 at top sportsbooks, meaning that if you plop down $100 on this bet, you will win $825.
