Thursday Night Football Free Pick
October 16, 2019
The Thursday night featured NFL game is Kansas City Chiefs at the Denver Broncos. The game is scheduled to kick off at 8:20 pm EST. The current point spread has the Chiefs favored -3 points and the point total is 48 points.
We have been good on our last few pick articles, which were both UNDERS. We hate betting Under but when the evidence all points in one direction, you go with it.
If this game was played after week 2 or week 3 the spread would have been KC minus a full TD. But in the weeks between then and now, the Chiefs have struggled while the Broncos have put together a couple of wins.
The Chiefs are 4-2 straight up and 3-3 against the spread this season. QB Patrick Mahomes is having a fantastic year statistically. He has thrown for 14 TD’s and just one INT. He is currently in second place for NFL MVP Odds behind Russel Wilson.
The Broncos are 2-4 straight up and 3-3 ATS. They are coming off consecutive wins (against the Chargers and the Titans). The story of this team is not QB play, as Flacco has been average at best. The story is that the defense has come together and the running game is blossoming behind Phillip Lindsay.
The point spread was actually issued as KC -5.5 but has since been bet down to KC -3. People are really doubting KC at this point. I think that losing two games in a row is disconcerting, however, its not time to panic.
The fact is that KC owns Denver. They have beaten them the last 7 times they have played. Denver has only covered one time in those 7 games. This is a very relevant stat to me. KC is 4-1 of last 5 games at Denver. KC is 17-7-1 in its last 25 road games. They are not a team that is highly affected by road pressure.
I like KC to win but I am also very cautious of the possibility of a close game as KC crawls out of their two game losing streak. It is for that reason I am recommending the moneyline. Take KC -150
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