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Wagering Myths and Mistakes

November 23, 2019
common myths and mistakes with sports betting

In gambling, the many must lose in order that the few may win.
-George Bernard Shaw (Is this you?)

1. Teams Win More After a Bye Week:
This is true, but they don’t cover more against the spread.
Here’s a new stat I’ve compiled that wins more than you would expect.
Teams prior to a bye week have been converting(ATS) at a rate of 63.7%.
(Last four years through 11-11-19)
There’s usually a plausible explanation.
Not sure I have one this time.

2. The Revenge factor:
This is already built into the line, and rarely means anything at all.
Statistically this changes during the NFL playoffs for non-divisional teams that have played each other. The public will heavily back the prior winner enough to give substantial value to the other side.

3. Assuming Similar Outcomes When Common Opponents Play:
If team (a) beat’s team (b), and team(b) beat’s team (c), shouldn’t team (a) beat team (c).
Of course not, and this seems obvious, but many analysts and those posting on forums use this methodology.

Good Luck The Rest of This Season.
I’ll do my best for you on this end.
John Rothschild

Author of Best Selling:
Football Betting Made Easy

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