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5 NFL Players You Should Bet On To Win The MVP Award

November 27, 2019

With six weeks left in the regular season, the NFL MVP award seems to be a race between two players. Two exciting players, I might add.

Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson are not your usual suspects. Neither of them has been in the MVP race before. However, 2019 has seen them play their best football.

The oddsmakers have those two as the favorites, but there are other names worth looking at when betting on the NFL MVP winner.

#1 Lamar Jackson +125 – Current MVP Favorite
Just before the start of the season, many “experts” were discussing if Lamar Jackson could be a good quarterback in NFL. Dismissing the fact that he took the Ravens to the playoffs last season.

The shadow of Joe Flacco is no longer behind Lamar, and that has helped his confidence. Jackson knows he’s the number one, and the team completely changed the offense based on his skills. Credit to the organization because that’s not easy to do. It’s a 180° turn, and it has worked.

Jackson And Roman Are Fundamental For Success
Baltimore gave the keys to the offense to Jackson, as well as to offensive coordinator Greg Roman. Roman worked with Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco during their most recent glory days.

Roman is a run-pass option expert, and he has made Lamar Jackson MVP worthy. Jackson has been responsible for 25 touchdowns this season, 19 passing the football and six rush TD’s. Over the last two games against Cincinnati and Houston, Lamar threw seven touchdowns and zero interceptions.

Performance Does Not Lie
Jackson has plenty of haters who don’t think he should be in the MVP conversation because he doesn’t pass the ball enough. Yet, Lamar leads the best scoring offense in the NFL, averaging 34.1 points per game. The way he plays is different, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a bad thing. Many are already saying Jackson is the MVP.

Another thing that Lamar Jackson has in his favor is the fact he beat Russell Wilson in their head-to-head matchup in week seven. The game was in Seattle, and the Ravens won that contest by 14 points on the road.

With his amazing performance, Jackson is the current favorite to win the NFL MVP award this year.

#2 Russell Wilson +180
Just a few weeks ago, Russell Wilson was the big favorite to win the MVP, and no one else even was close. Jackson closed the gap and took the lead over the last three games. Wilson can take back the top spot in the last stretch, mostly because the Seahawks’ success entirely depends on his performance.

Russ is responsible for 26 touchdowns this season, in which 23 have been passing the football and three running it. Wilson also leads the NFL with a 114.9 passer rating entering NFL week 12. He was able to help his team knockout the San Francisco 49ers’ unbeaten status on Primetime.

MVP Contender Despite O-Line Struggles
The words “Most Valuable Player” applies to Wilson and the Seahawks. Russ is having success even though their defense ranks 8th worst in the NFL in total yards.

The offensive line hasn’t helped a bit either. He has been sacked 27 times this year. In six of the ten games played this season, Russell Wilson has been sacked three times or more.

Wilson is more of a pure passer than Lamar, and that could help him down the road. Despite all the offensive line problems, the lack of weapons, and more, Russell has only thrown two interceptions this year.

Could Wilson Become MVP Favorite Again?
To regain the top spot, Wilson needs to outclass the Minnesota Vikings, Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers. If he beat those teams, it would be hard to deny him the MVP award. Focused on playing, Wilson doesn’t seem concerned about winning the title.

At +180, a bet on Russell Wilson to win the MVP has a 36% implied probability of winning.

#3 Aaron Rodgers +1200
Right now, Aaron Rodgers is the value bet for the MVP. His odds are not the best, but his team is in the mix to finish with the best record in the NFC.

The Packers have the fifth-worst total defense in the NFL, and yet they are 8-2 entering NFL week 12. Rodgers has commanded an offense without a lot of talent. At +1200, the implied probability of winning is 8%.

Aaron Rodgers is good enough to pull a comeback in this race.

#4 Deshaun Watson +1200
The odds on Deshaun Watson are identical as Rodgers, but the success of his team is not the same.

Houston has been up and down all season, and stability has always been an issue with this team. Watson has thrown 20 touchdowns and seven interceptions this season. The problem is he had one of his worst games of the year against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens.

Deshaun Watson would need to play his best football in the next six weeks to have a shot, but that scenario looks unlikely.

#5 Patrick Mahomes +1200
Despite missing three games with a dislocated knee, Pat Mahomes remains on the list to win the MVP. He’s that good.

We haven’t seen the same Mahomes as last season, but he still is the best quarterback in the NFL when he starts tossing the ball around. In his return game against the Tennessee Titans, he threw 446 yards and three touchdowns, without being 100% healthy.

He’s way behind compared to the other four names, but he can climb a few spots if the Chiefs end the season with a long run of victories.

sports analyst and handicapper

Alonzo Solano
Sports Analyst & Picks Writer

Email: [email protected]