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NFL Week 13 Opening Lines and Early Value Plays

November 30, 2020
Opening NFL Lines Week 13 of 2020 season

Last week’s early line analysis (pick) went 3-4 over all but that is in part due to injury and Covid. Teddy Bridgewater playing in the Vikings game brought that line way down and Denver never had a shot once all their QB’s were out with Covid. The Titans pick was a slam dunk.

This week we have a handful of games in which our opening line doesn’t match the official opening line and there may be early value there. It is important to remember that betting a game early in this strange season can be catastrophic to your bet. But there is a 50/50 chance the Covid protocol will actually help your bet as well.

Try and be careful about betting against and teams every week. The teams will eventually win and/or cover games. There are bettors who simply bet against Cincy, Jacksonville We actually like Jax this week) and NY Jets every week. That may work for a while but will usually bite you in the rear end eventually.

GameOur Line Official LinePlay
ATL vs NOPKNO 3-5YES (ATL)
MIA vs CINMIA -9.5MIA -11NO
HOU vs INDIND-2IND -2.5NO
PIT vs WASPIT -7.5PIT -10.5YES (WAS)
MIN vs JAXMIN -7MIN -9.5YES (JAX)
NYJ vs LVLV -7LV -7.5NO
TEN vs CLETEN -4TEN -5.5NO
CHI vs DETCHI -3.5CHI -3.5NO
ARZ vs LARLAR -1LAR -3YES (ARZ)
SEA vs NYGSEA -7.5SEA -8.5NO
LAC vs NEN/ALAC -1NO
GB vs PHIGB -6.5GB -7NO
KC vs DENN/AKC -13NO
DAL vs BALTN/AN/ANO
SF vs BUFN/ABUF -2.5NO

So there you have it. There are four games where the actual line differs from what we think the line should be enough that they are an early play to make. Here are those plays. Remember, if the line changes in the wrong direction a point or more, it is not a good play.

ATL +3.5

WAS +10.5

JAX +9.5 (buy the point to make +10.5 if you can)

ARZ +3 (buy the half to make +3.5 if you can)

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