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Medium to Long Shot Super Bowl Picks and Payout Odds

August 12, 2021
Super Bowl Longshot Picks for 2021

It’s no surprise the top two teams on the Super Bowl LVI betting board are the two teams that battled for the Lombardi Trophy a year ago. Kansas City is the new favorite at +375 and last year’s Super Bowl champions, still led by a 44-year-old Tom Brady, are right behind at +500. The Bucs and Chiefs are the only teams on the board at better than +1000 odds.

There are a handful of teams in the medium to long shot range that have a realistic shot of winning this year’s Super Bowl. It starts with a team that has never even played in a Super Bowl – the Cleveland Browns.


The Browns finished 11-5 last year and earned one of the AFC’s wild card berths to the postseason. There they beat rival Pittsburgh and advanced to the divisional round where they were beaten by Kansas City. It’s never good to lose, but the Browns only lost to the Chiefs 22-17 in that playoff game.

Cleveland has one of the best running games in the NFL. The Browns were third in rush offense last season with RB Nick Chubb going over the 1,000-yard mark. Baker Mayfield had a solid season at quarterback and the Browns offensive line is one of the better units in the league.

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Where Cleveland could make the big jump in 2021 is on defense. Remember, 2020 draft pick Grant Delpit would have started at safety last year but tore an Achilles tendon and missed the season. CB Greedy Williams missed 2020 as well making the secondary a liability instead of a strength. The Browns defense also gets Jadeveon Clowney playing opposite Myles Garrett at defensive end.

That defense could be the key in the Browns winning the franchise’s first-ever Super Bowl.


The Colts Super Bowl hopes lay in the hands of quarterback Carson Wentz, who was acquired in the offseason from Philadelphia. Remember, it was in Philadelphia where Wentz played for Frank Reich who is now the Colts head coach. If anyone can turn Wentz back into a winner, it’s Reich.

The question is when Wentz will play. He just had foot surgery but is now expected to play in Week 1. If that’s the case and Wentz can stay healthy, the Colts have a great shot at a Super Bowl. They have the best offensive line in football. The running game is outstanding and second-year RB Jonathan Taylor (1,169 yards, 11 TDs) should be even better in 2021.

The defense is also solid. The Colts began last year as one of the top units in the league. Through their first four games last season, Indy gave up just 49 points. They wound up 10th in the league in scoring defense. A solid defense, good running game, and a Super Bowl capable quarterback make the Colts an interesting pick at +2200.

DALLAS +2500

With the return of Dak Prescott to the Cowboys offense, anything is possible. What makes Dallas a contender though is the new defensive coordinator – Dan Quinn. The Cowboys were awful on defense last season and that is about to change.

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If it changes enough, Dallas could be the class of the NFC East. With Prescott running the offense in 2019, Dallas led the league in total offense (431.5 ypg) and averaged over 27 points per game. Prescott finished No. 2 in passing yards and threw 30 touchdowns that season. 

A revamped defense and the offense of 2019 make Dallas worthy of consideration at +2500.


If there is a team set to have a Cleveland Browns-like season from 2020, it’s the 2021 Chargers. They have a new coach in Brandon Staley, a Rookie of the Year at quarterback in Justin Herbert, and a defense about to change its tune in 2021.

Staley was the coordinator of the Rams defense last season. LA had the best defense in the NFL. Staley inherits a Chargers defense that has pass-rushing specialist Joey Bosa, LB Kenneth Murray Jr., and All-Pro safety Derwin James.

A Rams-like defense combined with the exploits of Herbert and WR Keenan Allen could be enough for the Chargers to surprise some people, especially Kansas City in the AFC West.


Ryan Fitzpatrick and Washington at +5000 oddsThe best longshot with a hope of a Super Bowl is Washington. The key ingredients for an NFL champion are always the quarterback, the defense, and the running game. The Football Team definitely has the defense. Washington finished second in total defense to the Rams last season and were a top ten team in scoring defense as well.

The quarterback will be Ryan Fitzpatrick, who may not be what you would call elite but he is a veteran who can get the job done. Washington will have to run the ball better too (100.7 ypg in 2020), but the Football Team has a solid offensive line and quality backs in Antonio Gibson (795 yards in 2020) and JD McKissic (365).