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Dolphins vs Ravens Inside the Numbers

November 11, 2021
Baltimore at Miami free preview and free pick

Thursday Night Football features the Miami Dolphins playing host to the Ravens. Things for both teams is going as usual. The Dolphins are bad and the Ravens are good. But in the NFL, the difference between good and bad can be just a few turnovers and a few bad plays.

Looking at the numbers between these two teams you will see that the chasm between the two isn’t as large as one might think.

Superficial

At first glance anyone will recognize that the Ravens are 6-2 and the Dolphins are 2-7. They will also see that the Dolphins got destroyed in a few games this season while the Ravens beat some really good teams. The casual bettor sees Baltimore -7.5 at Miami and doesn’t hesitate to throw down on the Ravens laying the points. As of this minute a full 75% of action is on Baltimore at online sportsbooks.

Deeper Dive

When you look at the actual numbers they tell a different story. Miami and Baltimore are both 3-5 against the spread (Miami is 3-5-1). Miami and Baltimore both give up 280 yards in the air on defense. Miami and Baltimore both give up roughly 25 PPG on defense.

The difference between these two teams is offense production. Baltimore is successful at rushing the ball (161 YPG) and Miami is absolutely terrible at it (75 YPG). Being able to run means that you control the clock and you keep the opposing team’s offense off the field.

Uncertainty

For Miami backers, the major concern is if QB Tua Tagovailoa will play tonight. He is a game time decision. But , Miami is coming off a win in which Jacoby Brissett was at the helm.

Miami is down their #1 receiver in Devante Parker. He has been placed on injured reserve.

What Will Happen

The Dolphins have an offensive line which is so bad it is, well .. offensive. The Ravens are a good football team but they struggle when they shouldn’t. And they shouldn’t struggle with Miami which is why I think they probably will.

Baltimore owns Miami. In fact, Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami. But there are trends which say that Miami can possibly actually break out of this funk. Miami is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games at home. Baltimore is just 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games.

Summary

Miami is bad, but not as bad as people think. Baltimore is good, but not as good as people think. From a serious bettor point of view I wouldn’t touch this game. But if you are the type of guy that just likes to have action on the game to make it entertaining, Miami +7.5 is the slightly better play. Bet now at top rated online sportsbooks.