Is Matthew Stafford a Hall of Fame Quarterback?

Matthew Stafford was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2009 NFL draft. Unfortunately for him, he was picked by the Detroit Lions, which at the time, were one of the worst franchises in the NFL. It’s not Stafford’s fault, but wallowing in Detroit for more than a decade leaves NFL fans with this question: Is Stafford a Hall of Famer?

 

The Case for Stafford in Canton

At the top of the list of pros as to why Stafford belongs in the Pro Football of Fame is his Super Bowl victory in the 2021 season. Stafford led the Rams to a 12-5 record and it was his TD pass to Cooper Kupp that sealed the Rams 23-20 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals in Super Bowl LVI. 

Add in his statistical milestones and you begin to believe that Stafford does belong in the Hall. He was the fastest quarterback ever to reach 20,000 passing yards (71 games). He’s also the fastest to 30K (109 games) and 40K (147 games). Stafford is currently No. 11 on the all-time career passing yards leaderboard. His 53,311 ranks just behind Eli Manning and ahead of Hall of Famer John Elway.

For all his misery in Detroit over a 12-year period, there was a small stretch of success. Stafford and the Lions went 11-5, 7-9, 9-7, and 9-7 from 2014 to 2017. In the 2015 season, Stafford became the first quarterback in NFL history to have a completion percentage of 60 percent or higher in each game. The following year in 2016, Stafford set a record with eight fourth-quarter comebacks. 

Stafford left Detroit after the 2020 season and promptly won that Super Bowl the very next season. He was hurt for most of the 2022 season and is off to a slow start in 2023. Stafford is only 35 and appears to be in great shape. What he does the rest of his career will play into the answer to this question.

 

Why Stafford Does Not Belong in the Hall of Fame

There is no question that Stafford has some amazing numbers. He’s even got a Super Bowl ring. However, he was not the MVP of Super Bowl LVI. Stafford has also never won a league MVP. In fact, Stafford has never even been among the runners-up for the award. 

In 14 seasons in the NFL (this is his 15th), Stafford has never been selected to an All-Pro team. That includes first- or second-team. He has been selected to exactly one Pro Bowl. Patriots QB Mac Jones, who was benched on Sunday for his play, went to the Pro Bowl in 2021. 

Stafford has also never led the NFL in any of the major statistical categories – passing yards, touchdowns, and completion percentage, for example. He has, however, led the NFL in pick-sixes – four times – and led the league in interceptions in 2021.

Not all Hall of Fame QBs played for winners, but Stafford’s record is bad. As an NFL starter, he’s 90-103-1. Heading into this season, he was 11-71 against teams with a winning record and 1-10 against teams with 10 or more wins. And, for the record, only two QBs (Joe Namath and Sonny Jurgenson) have made the Hall with losing records.

Here’s an interesting thought. Last Hall of Fame cycle, DeMarcus Ware, Devin Hester, Patrick Willis, Andre Johnson, and Torry Holt were among those eligible to be inducted. Ware made it while the other four didn’t. As a group, the five NFL stars were responsible for 34 Pro Bowls and 24 All-Pro selections. And four of those guys didn’t make the Hall!

 

Final Note

Pro Football Reference keeps a Hall of Fame monitor score. A score of around 100 is considered average. Steve Young, for example, has a score of 111.65. He, of course, is in the Hall of Fame. So is Tom Brady, whose score is 263.03. Aaron Rodgers is a likely first ballot HOFer and his score is 192.43. 

Stafford’s score? 58.44. 

 

Matthew Stafford Hall of Fame Betting Odds (as of Oct ’23)

These odds are not official and are not offered at any sportsbook to bet. They are our own odds based on what we have researched and what we would assign if we ran a sportsbook.

Matthew Stafford First Ballot Hall of Famer

No -1200
Yes +650

Matthew Stafford Hall of Fame First Five Years

No -620
Yes +300

Matthew Stafford Ever Gets into Hall of Fame

No -160
Yes +130

Note: Modern ere Hall of Fame allows a 20 year window to be inducted and players are not eligible after that. A player must be retired for a minimum of five years before appearing on the ballot.

If Stafford wins another Super Bowl or sets some new NFL records between now and his retirement, it is possible we will come back and update these odds.

Matthew Stafford Retirement Odds 

He retires:

After 2023-24 season +350
After 2024-25 season +250
After 2025-26 season +350
After 2026-27 season +450
After 2027-28 season +650
After 2028-29 and beyond +750

 

Here are is retirement odds, again these are completely hypothetical and not offered anywhere.