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NFL Green Bay at Las Vegas MNF Free Picks

October 7, 2023
Raiders host the Packers free pick

Week 5 of the NFL season concludes in Las Vegas, where the Green Bay Packers visit the Raiders Monday evening.  

Green Bay (2-2), which hasn’t played since a 34-20 home loss to the Detroit Lions last Thursday has had some extra time to prepare. The .500 record sort of summarizes the Pack’s inconsistent play, including a one-point play, one-point loss, and a pair of double-digit results (win and loss), too.

Las Vegas (1-3) began its season with a one-point win over the Broncos in Denver, then fell off the wagon. Three losses (at the Buffalo Bills, against the Pittsburgh Steelers and at the Los Angeles Chargers) have flipped the script in a hurry. 

It’s the visiting Packers as one-point favorites (total at 44½), according to NFL odds

Moneyline is equal as close, Green Bay at -115, Vegas -105. 

Green Bay has won nine of the 14 meetings between the teams, including the second Super Bowl (we wouldn’t lie).


Packers Not Defending

Jordan Love will be at the RaidersThe Green Bay Packers are allowing 352½ yards per game this season (T-21st in league), and stopping the run has been an issue. Having surrendered 155.3 rushing yards per game (30th in NFL) on the ground, opponents have usually had their way at the line of scrimmage.

Thus, what the Raiders figure to try and establish is no mystery.

Quarterback Jordan Love (901 passing yards, eight touchdowns, three interceptions) has been effective, as the Pack are averaging 25 points per game. Love has six touchdowns without a pick in his last two games.

Getting running back Aaron Jones 59 yards in two games) back in form after an injured hamstring can only help. 


It’s CSI: Vegas

The Las Vegas Raiders don’t score. Try 15½ points per game (T-25th in league). That’s down about eight points since last season. 

A dead-last rushing figure of 65.3 yards per game is one of the issues, though opposing an awful Packer run defense figures to significantly increase that number. Josh Jacobs, coming off a 1,653-yard, 12-touchdown effort last season, has just 166 yards (one touchdown) in four games to date.

Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo did miss the loss at the Chargers (concussion protocol)

As of this writing, it’s not known if he’s available against the Packers. Garoppolo (709 passing yards, five touchdowns, six interceptions) has been one the reasons the Silver and Black owns a stagnant offense.

Against the Bolts, Aidan O’Connell was serviceable (24-of-39, 239 passing yards, one interception) if not spectacular.

Vegas since 7-14 with elite wideout Davante Adams, which is somewhat confounding since he has 133 receptions (more than 1,900 yards, 17 touchdowns) since coming to town. 


Raiders to Win

These middling teams are projected to win 8½ (Green Bay) and 6½ (Las Vegas) games, respectively, as per NFL regular-season victories.

There’s no consistency with the Green Bay Packers, thus impossible to guess the sort of performance this week. However, stopping the run would help the effort.

Las Vegas is a desperate team, having dropped three games in a row and with a quarterback situation that’s very much in flux.  

A difficult game to gauge. Take the Raiders’ moneyline of -105. Go with the over as well. Bet these picks at