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Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Day Free Pick

November 21, 2023
Thanksgiving Day game at Detroit

Betting Insights

In the 2023 NFL season, both the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions demonstrated their proficiency against the spread. The Packers hold a 5-5-0 record, signifying a well-balanced performance in meeting or surpassing betting expectations. Notably, in four of their ten games, they have surpassed the predetermined total, showcasing a preference for high-scoring encounters. Conversely, the Lions boast an impressive 7-3-0 record against the spread, highlighting their consistency in surpassing betting predictions. Additionally, excelling as 7.5-point favorites or more, they maintain a 1-1 record in such situations. In games with a set total, the Lions have exceeded the established threshold six times this season, boasting a commendable 60% success rate.

Recent Performances

In Week 11, the Green Bay Packers clinched a crucial 23-20 home victory against the Los Angeles Chargers, with quarterback Jordan Love achieving a milestone by recording his first game with 300 or more passing yards. This win marked the Packers’ highest offensive output since Week 2, emphasizing their resurgence. Conversely, the Detroit Lions boast an impressive 8-2 record, their most successful start since 1962. In a noteworthy comeback against the Chicago Bears, the Lions rallied from a 26-14 fourth-quarter deficit, securing the win with a one-yard touchdown run by running back David Montgomery with just 29 seconds remaining. Notably, the Lions exhibit dominance in NFC North matchups, with seven consecutive victories in such encounters.

Defensive Analysis

Packers Thanksgiving Day GameIn the preceding week, the Green Bay Packers’ defense effectively limited the Los Angeles Chargers to 20 points. However, the Packers experienced a stroke of luck, allowing only one touchdown in four red-zone possessions for the Chargers. Notably, this marked Green Bay’s first game without a turnover since Week 2, and they aspire to extend this trend when facing the Lions, who currently rank in the bottom nine in takeaways. The Packers’ backfield confronts challenges due to injuries to key players, placing a significant burden on AJ Dillon. Recognizing the Detroit Lions’ susceptibility in defending against the pass, the Packers consider exploiting this vulnerability, especially given the Lions’ top-five ranking in the percentage of yards allowed on the ground.

Quarterback Showdown

In the Lions’ camp, quarterback Jared Goff showcased fourth-quarter prowess in the previous week, completing 11 of 14 passes for 120 yards and a touchdown. Goff’s recent performance, coupled with the team’s success in running the ball, positions the Lions as formidable opponents for the Packers.

Historical Context

The Lions hold a historical advantage, winning the last two home games against Green Bay and six out of the last ten encounters overall. Despite the Packers’ recent divisional dominance, the Lions have emerged as a potent force in the league, boasting one of the top five offenses capable of causing damage through both the air and on the ground.

Thanksgiving Day Showdown

This favoritism has increased, given their impressive start to the season and a convincing 34-20 victory over the Packers in Week 4 Green Bay, coming off a significant win against the Chargers, faces challenges with key injuries. Despite their recent offensive evolution, the Lions’ formidable offense and home advantage make them favorites in this matchup.

Odds at 

At this time 70% of the picks and money is coming in on Detroit. The public thinks that Detroit is the surefire thing here minus the points.

The Thanksgiving Day clash between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions promises to be a compelling matchup. While the Lions seem to have the upper hand, recent developments in both teams’ performances and the unpredictable nature of the NFL add an element of excitement to this intriguing spectacle. However, we are taking the Packers to keep it within the allotted point spread. Make sure to visit and claim a 30% CASH bonus or 135% FREE PLAY. 

Spread: Packers +7 ½ (-110) – Lions -7 ½ (-110)  

Money line: Packers +280 – Lions -350