Welcome to the NBA: The New Blowout Association
Scott Morris | January 31, 2024
In a typical NBA season, the highest average scoring margin usually happens in the month of March. That makes sense when you think about it. Teams are resting starters as they get ready for the postseason. Other teams are just outright tanking and the results are games with wider scoring margins.
The second-highest average scoring margin occurs in January. Over the past 24 seasons, the average margin of victory in NBA games played in January was 10.9 points. As we approach the end of this January, that number is up to 13.9. That is a huge difference. What is going on in the NBA?
Blowout City
In January, 36 percent of all NBA games finished with a margin of victory of 15 or more points. That’s one-third of all games that were simply not competitive. If teams are winning by more points, it makes sense then that they are covering point spreads more often.
Of the 70 favorites in the month of January thus far, 50 of them covered the spread by four or more points. Five teams have average scoring margins of 6.0 points or higher. Boston leads the NBA with a margin of +9.4. Oklahoma City is second at +7.9. The Thunder also have the NBA’s best ATS record at 30-16-1 and have covered spreads by an average of +4.9 points.
Those are some numbers bettors should be aware of, but why is all this happening? What is causing all of these blowouts in January?
Why All the Blowouts?
Well, it’s probably not one thing in particular that has led to more blowouts in January. It’s more likely a combination of things. It starts with the league’s inaugural In-Season Tournament. The IST caused players to push a little harder earlier in the season. Teams got after it hard in November when they normally do not. There may have been a letdown after the IST concluded in December.
The three-pointer has been a big difference this season. Teams that covered the spread in January made more threes than their opponent 62 percent of the time. In games won by more than 15 points, the winners hit more threes than the losers 83 percent of the time. It doesn’t take a math major to figure that one out. More threes means more points which leads to larger scoring margins.
Parity is an issue as well. There are no 73-9 Warriors-type teams in the league and from night to night, we see a lot of variance. Think about this. In games in January with spreads inside of four points – what we would expect to be close games – the average margin of victory was 11.3 points. Even in games projected to be close, teams are winning by higher margins.
Rest Could Be a Factor
Because of the IST, the number of back-to-back in January is up about three percentage points. With games scheduled in November and December as part of the tournament, it left little room for back-to-back games. Therefore, there are more in January. Is the lack of rest an issue? Possibly.
The Lakers played on Monday night and got smoked by Houston, 135-119. That came after an overtime win over Golden State on Saturday night. The Lakers then had to strap it up again on Tuesday night in Atlanta. Los Angeles lost again by 16. But, in mid-January, the Lakers had two impressive wins over Oklahoma City and Dallas. They had a night off and then played Brooklyn at home on Jan. 19. They lost to the 11th-place team in the East by 18 points.
Expect Blowouts to Continue
Will it get any better? Probably not. February is a weird month with the All-Star break right in the middle. Plus, there is the trade deadline coming. Teams are thinking about how they are going to handle the second half of the season. Once we hit March, we know teams that are pretty much locked in to make the postseason and those teams will be fighting for the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft.
March is the month with the highest average scoring margin. That means fans and bettors alike will get to experience even more of the New Blowout Association this year.
