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NFL Draft Odds

Scott Morris | April 2, 2024
Michael Penix Jr.

It’s less than a month away. The 2024 draft, Apr. 25th-27th in Detroit is among the marquee events of the offseason in the NFL, provided there’s actually an offseason in the NFL.

With final determinations and evaluations of players, the clock is indeed ticking. This class is loaded with quarterbacks, and the top passers having made their cases to those needy suitors  

Caleb Williams of Southern Cal is expected to go No. 1 overall to the Chicago Bears, sitting at -4000 on the board, according to NFL draft odds. However, there is plenty of intrigue after that. 

Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. was the last quarterback to have his pro day, and the solid performance of the lefty might change the way some teams view this class. 

 

Hitting the Target

The entire pro day of the Washington Huskies’ Michael Penix Jr. was viewed as a success, masterful at both ends of his ‘tryout’. His final throw traveled more than 70 yards in the air, hitting a receiver in stride. 

While his arm was never questioned, some worried about his speed and quickness after suffering knee injuries throughout his career. Teams no longer are concerned after Penix had a 40-yard dash time in 4½ seconds.

There were close to 100 pro representatives on hand to watch Penix perform, and he could have raised his stock with these numbers. Penix wasn’t happy with his time in the 40, however. 

The Chicago Bears have continued to scout/evaluate Penix throughout this process. This didn’t change their thinking with that first overall selection, or so it appears.

 

The Second Pick…

The second overall pick in the 2024 draft, belonging (currently) to the Washington Commanders, is worth a look. Odds have continued to tighten over the past few weeks, and while it seems probable a quarterback will be chosen in that spot, it’s not a guarantee. 

Jayden Daniels of Louisiana St. is currently the slight favorite to No. 2 overall, with Drake Maye (North Carolina) and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy also in that mix.

As was mentioned, this is a loaded draft class. There are other players to consider second overall, but the safest option is one of these quarterbacks. 

Marvin Harrison Jr. of Ohio St. is viewed as the best wide-receiver prospect in quite some time. In other years, he might have been atop the board. However, with any number of early-pick teams desiring a quarterback, his isn’t necessarily a position of need.   

 

Who’s Irrelevant?

While so much of the attention is focused at the top of the draft, the bottom is always an option on which wager.

“Mr. Irrelevant,” the final player chosen, is not always a throwaway selection (see Purdy, Brock).

(Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers are currently 6-1 [+600] co-favorites [with the defending-champion Kansas City Chefs[ to win the title as per Super Bowl LIX odds).

Back to the irrelevance. It’s turned into a big deal to see which player goes last overall. As of this writing, the last pick (No. 257) is a compensatory choice of the New York Jets.  

Mr. Irrelevant as a defensive player/punter is at -115, offensive player/kicker priced at -125.

In terms of specific position, there’s some additional “Irrelevant” value…

  • Quarterback    5-2 (+250) 
  • Defensive Line/Edge   4-1 (+400) 
  • Offensive Lineman    5-1 (+500)
  • Cornerback/Wide Receiver    6-1 (+600, each) 
  • Linebacker    8-1 (+800) 
  • Running Back    9-1 (+900) 
  • Safety    10-1 (+1000) 
  • Tight End    12-1 (+1200) 

Kicker/Punter/Long Snapper  18-1 (+1800, each)

 

 

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