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AL & NL Cy Young Odds Update at the All-Star Break

Scott Morris | July 8, 2024
Corbin Burnes of the Orioles

We’ve got one full week of games left prior to the 2024 MLB All-Star break. We’ve already reached the numerical midpoint of the 2024 season and it’s as good a time as any to take a look at the race for the Cy Young Award in both the AL and NL.

In mid-May of last season, NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell was 1-6 with a 5.40 ERA. He would go 3-1 in June and win his first two starts of July to go 6-7 with a 2.85 ERA at the All-Star break. Snell would finish 14-9 with a 2.25 ERA to take his second Cy Young award. The Yankees’ Gerrit Cole (15-4, 2.63) was strong from start to finish to take last year’s AL Cy Young.

What has transpired so far in 2024? Let’s take a look at the Cy Young race in both leagues.

 

A Three-Horse Race in the AL

Cole started the 2024 season as the overall favorite at +500 to repeat. That changed pretty quickly after Cole missed the first three months of the 2024 season with an elbow injury. He returned to the Yankees rotation on June 19 and in his first two starts of the season surrendered eight earned runs in eight innings. Cole is 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA and is now a huge longshot – +20000 – to win a second consecutive AL Cy Young. Yikes.

The only AL pitcher in the preseason top five that still ranks among the top-10 on the betting board is Baltimore’s Corbin Burnes. He is 9-3 this season with a 2.32 ERA. Fourteen of his 18 trips to the mound have been quality starts. Burnes won the 2021 NL Cy Young when he was with Milwaukee. He would become the eighth player to win the award in both leagues if he were to capture the AL crown this year. Snell became the seventh just last year.

Detroit’s Tarik Skubal has just taken over the favorite spot on the betting board. Skubal is 10-3 with a 2.37 ERA. He is listed at +200 to win the AL Cy Young after missing most of last season with an injury. His 132 strikeouts in 110 innings rank fifth in MLB. At the beginning of the season, Skubal was listed at +2200 odds to win the award at top rated online sportsbooks. More on the third horse in a moment.

 

What Happened to the Contenders

Toronto’s Kevin GausmanToronto’s Kevin Gausman was given the second-best odds – +700 – to win the AL Cy Young at the beginning of the season. He’s nowhere near that anymore. His season has been a disaster. Gausman is 6-8 on the season and has a 4.64 ERA with an expected ERA of 5.27.

Over his last seven starts, Gausman is 2-5 with a 5.27 ERA. He’s been extremely inconsistent and, like Cole, is now listed at +20000 to win the AL Cy Young. In the preseason, Gausman had the second-best odds (+700) on the board.

Pablo Lopez and Framber Valdez were given +1000 odds to win the AL Cy Young before this season started. Both were in the preseason top-5 and neither is among the top-10 anymore. Lopez is now on the board at +5500 and Valdez is given +7500 odds to win at BetOnline.ag.

 

The Unlikely AL Contender

The Chicago White Sox are the worst team in baseball. They are projected to win just 53 games this season and they aren’t even halfway there yet (26-66 as of July 7). One of the White Sox few bright spots is pitcher Garrett Crochet. 

Crochet leads the majors in strikeouts (146) and ranks third in WHIP (0.93). Because he doesn’t allow a lot of baserunners, Crochet’s ERA is 3.02 on a team that gives up the third-most runs in MLB. Currently, Crochet is given +800 odds to win the AL Cy Young.

If there is another pitcher to watch, it is probably Kansas City’s Seth Lugo. He is tied for the MLB lead with 11 wins (11-3) and is second in ERA (2.21). He leads the majors with 15 quality starts and he has the kind of numbers that make him a Cy Young candidate. Lugo is listed currently at +1700 at BETUS online sportsbook.

See Also: Most Likely Moves Before MLB Trade Deadline

 

The NL Cy Young Race

Heading into the 2024 MLB season, Atlanta’s Spencer Strider was the favorite (+550) to win the NL Cy Young. He went 20-5 with a 3.86 ERA in 2023 and was a big part of the Braves finishing with the best record in the National League. Strider made just two starts this season before he was shut down for the season. He underwent surgery on his right elbow and should return early next season.

Right behind Strider at the beginning of the season was Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler at +850. Wheeler is now 9-4 with a 2.74 ERA. He has a 0.99 WHIP and 119 strikeouts on the team with the best record in baseball. Wheeler is now the NL favorite to win the Cy Young at +180 odds.

After Wheeler is Chris Sale, who is enjoying a renaissance with the Atlanta Braves. Sale is tied for most wins in the majors with 11. He’s 11-3 and has the best WHIP (0.91) in the NL. Sale is sixth in strikeouts with 127 and his ERA of 2.71 is eighth. He is listed at +270 odds at Sportsbetting.ag,  leaving him and Wheeler as the clear favorites.

See Also: How to Bet the All Star Game

 

The Rest of the Pack in the NL

Atlanta’s Max FriedThere are three other National League pitchers given better than +1000 odds to win the Cy Young – Tyler Glasnow, Ranger Suarez, and Max Fried. Glasnow is 8-5 with a 3.23 ERA and he’s been at or near the top of the majors in strikeouts (143, currently 2nd) all season. He has the third-best odds (+600) to win at BetAnySports Sportsbook.

Suarez was 10-1 with a sub-2.00 ERA in mid-June. The Phillies have lost three of his last four starts and he’s allowed 11 earned runs in his last two. Still, Suarez is 10-3 with a 2.58 ERA and his Phillies are likely going to win the NL East. Suarez is currently given +700 odds in the Cy Young race.

The final NL contender is another Brave. Atlanta’s Max Fried is 7-4 with a 3.18 ERA. He had a great May and great June. Fried did start July off by allowing 5 earned runs, but it was to the Phillies. Last year, he went 8-1 with a 2.55 ERA and if he gets hot, Fried at +850 could be a great investment in the NL Cy Young race.

 

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