Final Four Preview – Lines and Leans

Saturday at 6pm EST will be game one of the 2025 March Madness Final Four series. Game 2 will go later that night at roughly 9pm EST. In this article we will go over the lines, leans, and public betting action.

All four remaining teams are on the Kenpom’s top 10 best teams using their ranking system, which dates back to 1996-97 season. This Duke team is rated +39.6, second place all time only behind 1998-99 Duke.

Houston is +36.5, which lands them at #6 all-time. Florida is #8 at +36.0 and Auburn is tied for #9 with 2007-08 Kansas with a score of +35.2. This would be the most talented Final Four in the last 28 years according to Kenpom.

Florida (-2.5) vs Auburn

The Gators are slight favorites over the Tigers in the first match up. Both teams have played as expected in this tournament. The Gators are coming off an 84-79 win against Texas Tech this past Saturday. Auburn is fresh off a 70-64 win over Michigan State.

The Gators are 28-12 ATS and 34-4 SU this season. Auburn is 21-17 ATS and 32-5 SU. If Florida covers these last two games that will place them at 29-11 ATS, the highest ATS win % by a champion in the past 30 years.

At the start of the season Florida was +6000 (60-1) odds to win it all. They are now at +325 at top sportsbooks.

Florida is receiving 68% of tickets and 76% of $ as of right now at the sportsbook.

Duke (-5) vs Houston

Duke has been the class of the league this year. They are 25-13 ATS and 35-3 SU. They are coming off an absolute drubbing of Alabama of 85-65. Houston itself is coming off a straight up beat-down of Tennessee of 69-50. They are 20-17-1 ATS and 34-4 straight up.

A key factor here is that Houston is playing a home game as the Final Four is right there in Texas. They are just the 9th Final Four team in the last 60 years to be playing at home.

83% of tickets and 66% of the $ are currently wagered on Duke. It may be worth taking a look at Houston in this matchup. However, there has been sharp money coming in on Duke.