2025 Kentucky Derby Run for the Roses Preview and Picks

The 151st edition of the Kentucky Derby is set for Saturday, May 3, at the historic Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The Run for the Roses begins the annual Triple Crown of horse racing with a field of contenders ready to lay claim to the first leg of their journey.

Post time on Saturday is 6:57 p.m. ET. The 2025 Kentucky Derby field will consist of 20 horses which were set after the post draw. The winner of the Santa Anita Derby has won the Kentucky Derby 10 times. Journalism, this year’s Santa Anita Derby winner, looks to make that number 11.

In the latest Kentucky Derby odds, Journalism is the overall favorite to capture the 2025 Run for the Roses. Kentucky Derby favorites have won 56 of the previous 150 races. That includes six of the last 12. 

Let’s take a look at the top contenders for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby.

Journalism Is the Favorite

As mentioned, Journalism is the overall favorite to capture the 151st Kentucky Derby. The horse is trained by Michael McCarthy, who has never won a Kentucky Derby. Last year was McCarthy’s first appearance in the Run for the Roses. His horse, Endlessly, finished ninth.

Journalism will be ridden by Umberto Rispoli, the Italian jockey who claimed another Santa Anita Derby title last week. He had won it in 2021 while riding Rock Your World. Like McCarthy, Rispoli has never won a Kentucky Derby.

Sovereignty & Sandman Top Contenders

Sandman checks in at 6-1 and is a favorite of many horse racing bettors. He is trained by Mark Casse whose horses have won the Preakness and Belmont Stakes (both in 2019) but have never won a Kentucky Derby. Jockey Jose Ortiz will ride Sandman.

In his last race on March 29, Sandman won the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. He showed outstanding closing speed in capturing the win that sealed his spot in this weekend’s Kentucky Derby. Sandman also ran the Southwest and Rebel Stakes but finished second and third, respectively. 

Sovereignty is given 5-1 odds to win on Saturday. He is one of three horses in the Derby field that has a win at Churchill Downs. Sovereignty has two wins in five starts in his career. He is trained by Bill Mott, who has won exactly one Kentucky Derby in his career. However, it was not because his horse crossed the finish line first. Country House was given the win after Maximum Security was disqualified for interference. 

With a come-from-behind running style, Sovereignty has the type of speed that is built for the shorter track at Churchill Downs. Junior Alvarado will ride Sovereignty. He has never won a Triple Crown race. His highest finish was fourth in 2016 while riding Mohaymen.

Grande Top Longshot

Grande is a promising young colt who already has three wins to his name. Grande is trained by Todd Pletcher who just happens to be a two-time Kentucky Derby winner. The horse will be ridden by John Velazquez, who has won 15 Breeder’s Cup races and six Triple Crown races, including three Kentucky Derby wins. Velazquez won the Run for the Roses in 2011, 2017, and 2020.

At 20-1 odds, a win by Grande could offer a big payout. He was sired by Curlin, a two-time Horse of the Year. Grande is patient and can run near the back of the pack or even in the middle before launching into a last-let surge to the finish. Grande has both the speed and the stamina for Saturday’s mile-and-a-quarter race.

Baffert Is Back

Bill Baffert is a legendary horse trainer who has six Kentucky Derby titles, 16 Triple Crown race wins, and two Triple Crowns (2015, 2018). If you recall, Baffert was banned from Churchill Downs since the 2021 Kentucky Derby when his horse, Medina Spirit, was disqualified because of a medication violation.

The ban has been lifted and Baffert is back in 2025. One of his horses is Rodriguez, which is given 12-1 odds at Sportsbetting.ag. Rodriguez won the Wood Memorial this year, finished second in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, and third at the San Felipe Stakes. 

Baffert also has Citizen Bull in the Kentucky Derby field. Citizen Bull is a longshot at 20-1 and will be ridden by Martin Garcia.

Our Longshot Pick to Win it All

Grande +2000 (20-1) at EveryGame.eu

Render Judgement +4000 (40-1) at SportsBetting.ag