Betting NFL Double-Digit Win Totals

It will be Year 5 of the NFL’s 17-game schedule. That schedule has had some impact on betting double-digit win totals. Beginning in 1990, there were roughly six teams per season with a win total of 10 or higher. 

When the NFL went to 17 games in 2021, that number jumped. In the first season in 2021, eight teams were given double-digit win totals. The number increased to 12 in 2022 before dropping to seven in 2023. Last year, there were 10 teams and in 2025 there are now eight. All of those are more than the average prior to the change in schedule.

2025 NFL Teams With Double-Digit Win Totals

It’s no surprise that the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles have a win total of 11.5 for the 2025 season. This will be the fourth straight season in which the Eagles have a double-digit win total. The 11.5 wins tied for their highest win total in the Wild Card era. The Eagles were set at 11.5 in 2005 and 2023. In both seasons, they went Under the total.

The Eagles opponent in last year’s Super Bowl, the Chiefs, also have a win total of 11.5. Kansas City has also been given a double-digit total in each of the past four seasons and is 2-2 in terms of Over/Under. With Andy Reid as head coach, the Chiefs have a win total O/U record of 10-2. Reid’s all-time record is 19-6-1.

The 2025 season will be the sixth straight with a double-digit win total for the Baltimore Ravens. Under head coach John Harbaugh, the Ravens have a win total O/U record of 10-6-1. The Ravens’ rival in the AFC North Division, Cincinnati, has a win total of 10 in 2025. From 1999 to 2022, the Bengals never had a double-digit win total. This will be their third straight season in double digits and they went Under in each of the past two seasons.

Buffalo, Detroit, San Francisco, and the Los Angeles Rams are the other four teams with double-digit win totals. The Bills (11.5) have gone Over their win total in three straight seasons and the Over is 7-1 in the last 8 seasons. 

It’s the same for Detroit. The Lions have gone Over in each of the last three seasons. That’s their longest such streak since 1993 to 1995. The Rams are 6-2 to the Over under head coach Sean McVay. The 49ers won just six games last year but have a win total of 10 in 2025. 

If you are blindly considering taking any of these teams to go Over, don’t. Make sure you dive into the research before making any decisions. There are some very interesting historical trends that you should be aware of before making a win totals bet.

History of High NFL Win Totals

It is extremely difficult for an NFL to exceed expectations once its win total is established so high. Since 1990, there have been 205 NFL teams assigned a double-digit win total. Only 85 of those teams have gone Over the total. 

That’s 43.6 percent for those doing the math. What’s interesting is that teams failing to hit the Over have gone Under their double-digit win total by 0.6 wins per season. That means a team given a win total 11.5 that doesn’t go Over probably didn’t because they only won 11 games.

That also tells bettors a strong story. Sportsbooks are very efficient at setting these win totals. More on that in a moment.

How to Find Value on NFL Double-Digit Win Totals

Sportsbooks are in business to make money. Oddsmakers know exactly what they are doing when they set a win total in the preseason. Consider the following.

Since 1990, there have been 65 teams with a win total of 11 or more. That’s about two teams per season. Over that time period, those 65 teams have the following Over/Under record 31-31-3. 

Where the value lies, though, is teams in the 10 to 10.5 range. There have been 140 teams since 1990 with such win totals. A total of 59.4 percent of those teams went Under their total. Their Over/Under record is 54-79-7 and those teams went Under by three-quarters (0.75) of a win. But, what about the impact of the 17-game schedule?

Impact of the 17-Game Schedule

You can understand the impact of the extra game by adding up all the preseason win totals and comparing them to the number of games. In 2021, the first year of the 17-game schedule, total wins – all the win totals added together – equaled 277. There are 272 games in an NFL season with 17 games.

Prior to 2021, in the seasons between 2018 and 2020, the average of the total wins in the preseason market was just under 261 (260.8). Those seasons had 256 regular season games. 

Now, since 2021, we’ve had 272.5 in 2022, 273 in 2023 and 2024, and now we’re at 274. It’s interesting to note that now, with the extra game, win totals are more in line with the total number of wins in a given season.

Trends to Watch When Betting NFL Win Totals

Since 2021, teams with double-digit win totals have gone 18-19 to the Over. The teams going Under did so by an average of 0.14 wins per team per season. Even more interesting is the numbers leading up to 2021.

Between 2017 and 2020, there were 21 teams with double-digit win totals. They went 8-12-1 to the Over and in the period between 2013 and 2016, 25 teams went 12-13 to the Over. The betting public loves Overs, but recent history suggests the public better be careful when betting the Over on NFL season win totals.

It’s also worth noting teams in the 17-game era that have a win total of 11 or more after a season where their win total was less than 10. It’s only happened three times: the 2021 Buccaneers, the 2021 Bills, and the 2023 Bengals.

Tampa Bay had a win total of 12 and won 13 games, led by a quarterback named Tom Brady. They were the only one of the three to go Over their win total. The Bills and Bengals didn’t come close to the Over. 

Bettors should also be wary of teams like the Lions. Detroit has a win total of 10.5, which just happens to be their win total from last year. The Lions went 15-2 last year to become the 11th team in the last decade to have a double-digit win total one year after surpassing their win total by four or more wins. Caution – the previous ten teams saw the Under cash in 8 out of 10.

Even betting the Under on “bad” teams has shown an edge in the 17-game era. Since 2021, teams with win totals of 9 or less went 29-35 to the Over. If you go back to 2018, those numbers are 56-65-4 to the Over. Last season, teams that had a win total of 9 or less went 8-10 to the Over.