Finding Value In The Race For The 2025 Heisman Trophy

The Heisman Trophy in college football is one of the most talked-about individual sports awards. Strong opinions, contentious discussions, and often outlandish predictions accompany the attention. Although the trophy is supposed to go to the “best player in college football,” recent history demonstrates that this is not a race that is solely determined by merit.

Last season, it was Colorado’s Travis Hunter, a wide receiver/cornerback who played both sides of the ball, that won the award. He recorded an incredible 1,443 snaps in just 12 games. Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty, the runner-up, was the first running back to receive a Heisman invitation in ten years. He finished second in single-season rushing yards ever, only surpassed by 1988 Heisman winner Barry Sanders.

Do not forget that this is still a quarterback award, even though the recent success of skill-position players has given non-quarterbacks hope. Since 2005, only three running backs and one wide receiver (DeVonta Smith in 2020) have won the Heisman Trophy, while 15 of the 20 winners (75%) have been quarterbacks. Hunter, an extremely rare two-way star, is the big exception.

What’s really interesting is this. Over the last 20 years, a startling 75% of Heisman Trophy winners have played for schools in the Central Time Zone. Think about why. Heisman hype and media attention are skewed toward games that air earlier in the evening during prime viewing hours, especially for East Coast voters.

Another thing to look at is how a player’s team performed. The average number of losses among Heisman winners is only 1.25, and only five winners in the previous 20 years came from teams with three or more losses. Team success is also important for Heisman contenders. In other words, you aren’t winning the Heisman if your team isn’t winning.

With all this in mind, here are four value picks for the 2025 Heisman Trophy.

Drew Allar – Penn State QB

Allar said no to the NFL and returns as one of the top quarterbacks in the country. His team wins games. The Nittany Lions lost in the Big Ten championship game but made the College Football Playoffs. Penn State won two playoff games before being eliminated by Notre Dame. 

Allar completed 66.5 percent of his passes for 3,327 yards and 24 touchdowns last season. He did that while playing with not one, but two 1,000-yard rushers in Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. 

While Arch Manning of Texas is the early +600 favorite to win the Heisman at BetOnline sportsbook, Allar is among the top five contenders at +1400. His team is the favorite to win the Big Ten and a favorite to make the CFP again. Plus, Penn State will play plenty of high-profile, prime time games this season.

Avery Johnson – Kansas State QB

Johnson was not the Wildcats starter at the beginning of last season, but he earned the job and played well. Last season, he threw for 2,712 yards and 25 touchdowns and also ran for 605 yards and seven more scores. 

Johnson is as good a dual-threat quarterback as there is in college football. He’s a tremendous athlete with 4.5 speed in the 40-yard dash and 37-inch vertical jump. When Johnson was a freshman, he backed up Will Howard and played quite a bit as the Wildcats running option.

He’s a longshot at +5000 at Everygame Sportsbook, but he’ll get some national exposure right off the bat when Kansas State plays Iowa State in a huge Week 1 Big 12 conference game. The Wildcats are the favorite to win the Big 12, which will put Johnson on a team that likely wins a lot of games. That could put Johnson in the national limelight.

C.J. Carr – Notre Dame QB

When you play quarterback for Notre Dame, you are automatically in the national limelight. That won’t be a problem for new Fighting Irish QB C.J. Carr. He’ll be tested early too. Notre Dame plays Miami in Week 1 and Texas A&M in Week 3. Both of those games will determine whether Carr is a legitimate Heisman candidate or not.

The Irish will likely be double-digit favorites in almost every other game on their schedule. Carr should definitely pad his resume with stats. Notre Dame is also favored to return to the College Football Playoff and is a contender to get back to the national championship game. That is all favorable for Carr, who is given +5000 odds to win the 2025 Heisman Trophy at Sportsbetting.ag.

Behren Morton – Texas Tech QB

The longest of long shots, Morton is listed at +20000 to win this season’s Heisman Trophy. He is likely the one name on this list that most fans have never heard. However, take note, because Morton is the real deal. So is Texas Tech.

The Red Raiders are a pass-happy Air Raid team which means Morton is going to have some big numbers. Last year, he finished sixth in the nation in passing attempts per game (41.2). He did that while playing with a strain in his AC joint for most of the season. 

Morton threw for 3,335 yards and 27 touchdowns last season. He only threw eight interceptions. The Red Raiders are projected to win nine or ten games this season and they’re a darkhorse contender for the Big 12 title. 

If Texas Tech has success early, look for Morton in some high-profile games late in the season. The Red Raiders will play at Arizona State on Oct. 18 and at Kansas State on Nov. 1. Those two teams plus Texas Tech are the favorites to win the conference. 

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