Best Group of 5 Teams to Make the 2025 College Football Playoffs

With the expansion of the College Football Playoff to 12 teams last season, access to the postseason for a team from the Group of 5 is always available. It’s one of the better qualities of the new playoff system which guarantees a Group of 5 entrant when they meet certain conditions.

Those conditions were met last year by Boise State, which went 12-2 last year, won the Mountain West Conference, and lost to Penn State in the first round of the playoffs. Could the Broncos get back to the CFP in 2025? That’s one of the big questions heading into the new season. 

The Broncos will be one of the Group of 5 favorites to make the postseason, but there are a few other teams worthy of consideration. Here’s a look at your best Group of 5 bets to make the 2025 college football playoffs.

Boise State (+190)

The Broncos were outstanding a year ago and one of the big reasons was All-American RB Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty ran for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns last season and was the runner-up in the Heisman Trophy voting. He is now in the NFL, but Boise State head coach Spencer Danielson went to the portal for his replacement. 

Malik Sherrod ran for 966 yards at Fresno State in 2023. He, along with Sire Gaines and Jambres Dubar can fill the hole left by Jeanty. Maddux Madsen is back at quarterback, and he threw for 3,018 yards and 23 touchdowns in 2024. He’ll play behind four returning offensive line starters and the defense returns seven starters including All-MWC LB Marco Notarainni. 

James Madison (+1600)

Remember when Curt Cignetti put JMU on the FBS map? Don’t sleep on Bob Chesney, who led the Dukes to a 9-4 mark last season. He brings in QB Matthew Sluka from UNLV who was actually Chesney’s quarterback when he was at Holy Cross. He’s a dual-threat guy who is experienced and can make plays. 

Chesney went into the portal to replace starters on both sides of the ball. The Dukes have a tough one at Louisville in Week 2, but the rest of the schedule is manageable. JMU is projected to win the East Division of the Sun Belt Conference, the last one to keep the division format. If their transfers pan out, a Sun Belt championship game could be a step toward a playoff berth.

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Navy (+1000)

If you did not see Navy play last year, make sure you do this season. The offense is an absolute nightmare for opposing defensive coordinators. Head coach Brian Newberry went out and hired former Mercer (FCS) head coach Drew Cronic to retool the Navy offense. 

While the Midshipment still run the traditional triple option, Cronic’s hybrid Wing-T influence can be seen in an Navy offense that was sixth in the nation in rushing (247.5 ypg) while throwing for an uncharacteristic 123.8 yards per game. Navy averaged 31.3 points per game and finished 10-3. Most importantly for Navy, they did beat Army 31-13.

QB Blake Horvath is back after recording 30 touchdowns in 2024. He led the team in rushing with 1,246 yards and 17 touchdowns. He also threw for 1,353 yards and another 13 scores. The defense returns four starters, one of which is NG Landon Robinson who is an NFL prospect. The schedule is very manageable, and an American Athletic Conference championship and an unbeaten record could put the Midshipmen in the postseason.

Tulane (+750)

One look at Tulane’s depth chart after last season ended and one would think “no way.” There’s just no way the Green Wave could put up another great season with just two offensive starters (both linemen) and three more on defense. 

But Tulane has sunk a lot of money into their football program which has gone 32-10 over the last three seasons. RB Makhi Hughes, a 1,000-yard rusher, left to go to Oregon. QB Darian Mensah is now at Duke. What did head coach Jon Sumrall do? He went to the transfer portal himself.

His quarterback will be one of the following: Jake Retzlaff (BYU), Kadin Semonza (Ball State), or Brendan Sullivan (Iowa/Northwestern). Maurice Turner takes over at running back after playing at Louisville last year. WR Shazz Preston is a former 4-star Alabama signee. It’s the same on defense where transfers will help the Green Wave get back to the AAC championship game in 2025.

UNLV (+1100)

Last season, UNLV was arguably just one game away from making it to the College Football Playoffs. In the Mountain West Championship Game against Boise State, the Rebels had an opportunity to steal a bid but were unsuccessful. Then, they lost head coach Barry Odom to Purdue. That may have been a blessing in disguise though as Dan Mullen is now the Rebels head coach.

Mullen led Florida to its only SEC Championship Game appearance since 2016, and he made 11 consecutive postseason appearances at Florida and Mississippi State. UNLV’s offense welcomes quarterback transfer Anthony Colandrea from Virginia. Mullen only has one returning starter on either side of the ball, but it won’t matter. Colandrea is one of 22 Power 4 transfers that will suit up for UNLV in 2025. That kind of experience and a favorable schedule give UNLV another shot at a playoff berth.

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