Chargers vs Chiefs Preview – Odds – Free Pick

Can you smell that? It’s the smell of fresh cut grass on the field. It’s football season again and we couldn’t be happier. Not only is American football the most exciting sports there is, it’s also the most profitable for those willing to put in the time to properly handicap the games.

Chargers vs Chiefs will be just the second game of the entire season and will be played Friday night at 10pm EST in Sao Paulo, Brazil.  This is a divisional rivalry game so you know both teams will be locked in and playing for the win with all they got.

“We look forward to the challenge of playing the Chargers,” head coach Andy Reid said Friday. “It’s in Brazil. We look forward to traveling south there and having an opportunity to play internationally. It’s quite a privilege.”

The live NFL point spread currently lists the Chiefs as 3-point favorites. The total is resting at 45.5 points. Currently the sportsbook tickets are about even (56% on KC and 44% on LA) but the action report is heavily lopsided (71% on LA and only 29% on KC). However, known “sharp” money bettors have lined up to bet the Chiefs. You will often see sharp being on the opposite side of the general betting public.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs will be starting rookie DT Josh Simmons at left tackle. He is tasked with the job of protecting Mahomes from Khalil Mack, a 9-time Pro Bowler and former DPOY.

The Chiefs notably lost CB L’Jarius Sneed, S Mike Edwards, TE Robert Tonyan, and DT Mike Pennel. Kareem Hunt is back with the Chiefs and will resume his role in the backfield. He will not be getting the carries he did when he was last with the Chiefs in 2017. They also brought in RB Elijah Mitchell.

The Chiefs have plenty of young talent even though some of their stars are getting a little long in the tooth. They are the 8th youngest team in the NFL according to PhillyVoice.com. Their opponent this Friday are ranked #7. Both teams have youth and speed working for them.

I don’t need to go into detail about Patrick Mahomes. The guy is a baller who finds amazing ways to win games. You already know all about him. Mahomes is 10-2 overall in his career against the Chargers. Think about that record. That is pure domination.

The Chiefs’ defense was ranked #10 last year as far as point per game allowed. They are pretty much as good as they were last year too which is why the Chiefs are near the top as far as odds to win the Super Bowl (+850 at Sportsbetting.ag).

Los Angeles Chargers

In the 2025 offseason, the Los Angeles Chargers saw several key starting players depart as part of a strategic roster overhaul to manage cap space and prioritize youth. Star defensive end Joey Bosa, a cornerstone with 10.5 sacks in 2024, was released to save approximately $25 million and signed with the Buffalo Bills.

Running back J.K. Dobbins, who led the team with 803 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns, hit free agency and joined the Denver Broncos. Wide receiver Josh Palmer, a reliable WR2 with 71 receptions for 1,110 yards, was not re-signed and remains a free agent. Cornerback Asante Samuel Jr., a slot starter with 2 interceptions in limited action before a shoulder injury, also hit free agency and is unsigned.

Fellow cornerback Kristian Fulton, who started on the outside with 3 interceptions and 10 pass breakups, left for the Kansas City Chiefs. These departures, while creating cap flexibility, left significant gaps in the Chargers’ pass rush, running game, receiving corps, and secondary as they head into the 2025 season.

In the 2025 offseason, the Los Angeles Chargers strategically reshaped their roster by bringing in several key free agents and draft picks to fill starting roles, addressing critical needs after losing significant players in the running back, offensive line, secondary, and tight end positions. These additions align with head coach Jim Harbaugh’s vision of a physical, balanced team capable of competing in the AFC West, building on their 11-6 playoff season in 2024. The new starters bring a mix of veteran experience, proven production, and youthful potential to bolster the lineup.

At running back, the Chargers signed Najee Harris to a one-year deal worth up to $9.25 million, securing a workhorse starter to lead their ground attack. Harris, previously with the Pittsburgh Steelers, consistently surpassed 1,000 rushing yards per season and is expected to thrive in Harbaugh’s run-heavy scheme, filling the void left by J.K. Dobbins’ departure to Denver. Complementing Harris, the Chargers drafted Omarion Hampton in the first round, who is projected to contribute as a rotational back but could see significant snaps given Harris’ recent eye injury in training camp.

On the offensive line, the Chargers added two veteran starters to solidify their front. Mekhi Becton, a 6-foot-7, 363-pound right guard and former first-round pick, was signed to a two-year contract after winning a Super Bowl with the Philadelphia Eagles in 2024. His size and run-blocking prowess make him a cornerstone for the Chargers’ ground game. Similarly, center Andre James, a six-year veteran from the Las Vegas Raiders with 60 career starts, joined on a one-year deal and is set to anchor the line, bringing stability and experience from his time protecting high-output rushing attacks.

In the passing game, the Chargers addressed the tight end position by signing Tyler Conklin to a one-year, $3 million deal. Conklin, coming off four straight 500-plus yard seasons

The Chargers are likely to be slightly worse in 2025, projecting around 9-10 wins compared to 11-6 in 2024.

Free Pick

The Chargers jumped out strong last season, winning their first two games before dropping the next two to the Steelers and these very same Chiefs (10-17). I don’t see any real reason why this game will be any different than last year’s.

Oddsmakers have the Chiefs ranked much higher than the Chargers as far as Super bowl odds are concerned. The Chiefs are +850 and the Chargers are +2500.

I think I am going to ride with the sharps on this one and go against the public as well. Mahomes is 10-2 against the Chargers in his career and I think this will make it 11-2. Take the Chiefs and buy the half point if possible. Bet it now at one of these sportsbooks and rest easy knowing we have you back should any dispute ever arise.

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