Monday Night Football Trends and Picks

The Chicago Bears and Minnesota Viking open their season tonight with a divisional showdown. The Vikings will be starting their new QB J.J. McCarthy, who by all measures is still a rookie since he missed all of last season due to injury. The Bears will have 2nd year man Caleb Williams under center.

Both teams have had some changes in the off-season but oddsmakers like Minnesota better as a whole. Sportsbetting.ag has the Minnesota Vikings at +2500 to win the Super Bowl whereas the Bears are only +4000.

In this game tonight, the point spread is currently Minnesota -1.5 and the total is 43.5. There is a huge disparity on sportsbook tickets vs money wagered on this game. 79% of tickets are on the Vikings but are receiving only 25% of the money. No legit sharp action has been tracked on this one but it’s clear that there have been some very large wagers placed on Chicago +1.5 at home.

These week 1 trends should help you formulate your opinion of what to bet tonight. Teams that won between 4-6 games the year prior are 54–24–1 ATS (69%). Since 2015, division underdogs are 13-4 ATS at home in week 1. Finally, teams which failed to make the playoffs are 41–15–1 ATS (73%) against playoff teams in divisional games in week 1.

I think there is pretty substantial evidence to back a solid Bears play here.