The Biggest Underdog Wins in Super Bowl Betting History

Two-minute history lesson: a handful of Super Bowls flipped Vegas logic on its head, turning double-digit ’dogs into Lombardi winners. Here are the most dramatic upsets by closing spread—and why they still shape how fans and bettors think about risk.

1) Jets (+18) Over Colts — Super Bowl III (1969)

The AFL’s New York Jets shocked the 18-point favorite Baltimore Colts, validating Joe Namath’s guarantee and an entire league’s credibility. It remains the biggest spread upset in Super Bowl history, with most books closing around Colts −18. 

2) Patriots (+14) Over Rams — Super Bowl XXXVI (2002)

St. Louis’s “Greatest Show on Turf” met a second-year starter named Tom Brady and a Belichick game plan that smothered the scoreboard. New England closed around +14 and won 20–17, launching a dynasty and cementing one of the NFL’s great price-versus-perception mismatches. 

3) Chiefs (+12) Over Vikings — Super Bowl IV (1970)

Minnesota’s defense looked untouchable until Hank Stram’s Chiefs dominated in a 23–7 win. Kansas City closed +12, making this an early back-to-back for double-digit underdogs in the formative Super Bowl years. 

4) Giants (+12) Over Patriots — Super Bowl XLII (2008)

New England entered 18–0 and −12 with an all-time offense; New York answered with a relentless pass rush and two iconic plays (Tyree’s helmet catch, Burress’s winner). It’s the most famous modern upset by spread, and a reminder that pressure can bend the best models.

5) Broncos (+11) Over Packers — Super Bowl XXXII (1998)

Favre’s Packers were chasing a repeat as double-digit favorites, but Terrell Davis and John Elway powered Denver to a 31–24 win. A classic “NFC juggernaut vs. AFC pretender” narrative evaporated in four quarters. 

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6) Giants (+7) Over Bills — Super Bowl XXV (1991)

Buffalo’s K-Gun offense was favored by a touchdown, but Bill Parcells and DC Bill Belichick shortened the game with ball control. Scott Norwood’s wide-right miss preserved a 20–19 Giants win—and a significant ATS shocker for that era.

7) Raiders (+3) Over Washington — Super Bowl XVIII (1984)

Washington had been a machine all season; L.A. flipped the script 38–9 as a small underdog. Not a double-digit spread, but the scale of the beatdown against a heavily backed favorite turned it into one of the sport’s formative “public side” lessons. 

Notable Smaller-Spread Stunners (Still Painful for Favorites)

Eagles (+4.5) Over Patriots — Super Bowl LII (2018)

Nick Foles, RPOs, and the Philly Special outpaced Brady in a 41–33 shootout. It wasn’t a huge line, but the game was a high-handle upset and a template for aggressive fourth-down math on the biggest stage. 

Saints (+5) Over Colts — Super Bowl XLIV (2010)

Sean Payton’s onside kick to open the second half changed momentum and probability in one call. New Orleans’s late pick-six sealed the upset. 

Broncos (+5) Over Panthers — Super Bowl 50 (2016)

Carolina entered with an MVP quarterback and the league’s top point differential; Denver’s pass rush turned it into a defensive clinic. Bettors who trusted pressure over narrative were rewarded. 

Why These Upsets Matter to Bettors and Analysts

• Market memory: Double-digit ’dogs almost never win the Super Bowl—until they do. Each result above becomes part of how books shade extreme numbers and how bettors calibrate priors.

• Narrative vs. price: Teams with historic offenses (2001 Rams, 2007 Patriots) attracted premium pricing; disciplined defenses and variance-friendly game plans cracked those premiums. The Analyst’s data-driven look at the largest Super Bowl upsets highlights how often pressure and pace disrupt favored models.

• Historical baselines: For exact lines and results across every Super Bowl, BetFirm’s spread history remains a convenient table to cross-check your memory against the market.