A Far Too Early National Championship Pick

It’s still early to talk about national championship matchups, but if the College Football Playoff kicked off tomorrow, the bracket would look very different from what anyone expected a few months ago. Back in August, most projections had Ohio State, Georgia, and Alabama at the top. Instead, we now have a field with more movement than usual, especially in the top 12. Ohio State remains the favorite at +160, but Indiana has climbed into the second spot at +425, which wasn’t something most people saw coming. Georgia sits at +800, and Oregon at +1000 has worked its way into the discussion with a late-season surge.

If you’re looking at the teams most likely to meet in the national title game based on current form, Indiana and Oregon appear to be the two that stand out. And if they played tomorrow, Oregon would likely go in as the favorite because of how balanced they look on both sides of the ball.

Current National Championship Betting Odds:

— odds can be found at Bovada Sportsbook 

Ohio State +160
Indiana +425
Georgia +800
Oregon +1000
Notre Dame +1000
Texas Tech +1100
Texas A&M +1200
Alabama +1200
Ole Miss +3500
Oklahoma +7000

Even with the Buckeyes leading the board, recent projections don’t place Ohio State in the final matchup. Instead, the momentum has shifted toward Indiana and Oregon, who have played the most consistent football heading into the last part of the season.

Indiana’s Case: Playing Its Best Football When It Matters

Indiana has been one of the more reliable teams over the last month. The Hoosiers haven’t had the same dominant stretches that Oregon has, but they’ve handled their schedule well. A lot of that is because quarterback Fernando Mendoza has given the offense stability. He doesn’t force many mistakes, and he keeps the offense moving in a steady rhythm.

Indiana’s rise to +425 (BetOnline.ag) isn’t based on one standout moment. It’s the product of several weeks where they’ve done enough to stay in control of games. Mendoza has helped them finish drives and convert key plays, which has separated them from teams in similar playoff positions. The Hoosiers aren’t overwhelming opponents, but they aren’t slipping, either. In November, that matters more than people think.

The reason Indiana isn’t the projected favorite in a potential matchup with Oregon is pretty simple: Oregon checks more boxes. But Indiana has put together the type of résumé that puts them firmly in the conversation, and their consistency is hard to overlook.

Oregon’s Case: A Team Built for January Game Plans

Oregon at +1000 (sportsbetting.ag) feels like a number that might look too low in hindsight. Their rise has everything to do with how quarterback Dante Moore has settled into the season. Over the last stretch of games, Moore has turned the Ducks into a far more dangerous offense. When a quarterback hits his stride this late, oddsmakers usually respond to it, and Oregon has gotten that boost.

The Ducks also have advantages that show up in playoff settings. Their offensive line gives Moore the time he needs, and their defensive front limits the types of explosive plays that tend to swing postseason games. Oregon hasn’t just been winning; they’ve been controlling matchups from start to finish. That’s usually a good sign heading into December.

Compared to Indiana, Oregon looks like the more complete team. The Ducks handle tempo, physicality, and defensive assignments with fewer issues. They look more prepared for the variety of situations that come up in playoff games.

Why Oregon Holds the Edge in a Hypothetical Matchup

If Oregon and Indiana played for the national title tomorrow, the matchup would probably lean toward the Ducks. The biggest difference is at quarterback. Moore has been comfortable under pressure and has taken steps forward in decision-making. His ability to extend plays and keep the offense on schedule gives Oregon an advantage.

Indiana’s offense can put together long drives, but Oregon’s defense has been better at taking away deep plays and forcing opponents to play at a slower pace. That would make it harder for Indiana to create momentum in a neutral-site game.

Another factor is how Oregon adapts to different types of matchups. They can play fast or slow, and their recent games suggest they are peaking at the right time. Teams with strong quarterback play and solid defensive fronts tend to survive the playoff format, and Oregon fits that profile better than Indiana.

Final Pick

If the national championship happened tomorrow and the matchup was Indiana vs. Oregon, Oregon would be the pick. They have the steadier quarterback, more balance on both sides of the ball, and the kind of November momentum that usually carries over into January. Indiana deserves credit for reaching this point, but Oregon looks better suited for a title run. Bet Oregon now at one of these sportsbooks and know you will be in good hands. We vet every sportsbook on this list and have good relationships with them.