How Championship Weekend Shook Up the CFP and the New Title Odds

Championship weekend didn’t just finalize the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket. It changed a lot of the talk about who actually has a real chance to win it. Indiana took down Ohio State in the Big Ten title game, so they ended up as the No. 1 seed. Ohio State only slipped to No. 2, which felt about right for their season. Georgia grabbed the No. 3 spot after beating Alabama, and Texas Tech moved into No. 4 by taking care of BYU in the Big 12 Championship.

This year’s system also mattered. The committee didn’t automatically hand out byes to every Power 4 champion. They just seeded the whole field after picking the five highest-ranked conference champs. That’s how Ohio State hung onto a bye without winning their league. Duke winning the ACC at 8-5 helped open space for Tulane and James Madison, both getting in as Group of Five champions.

The biggest debate came at the back end. Miami ended up at No. 10, and that pushed Notre Dame out. Even with 10 straight wins, Notre Dame couldn’t overcome that Week 1 loss to Miami, and the committee finally used the head-to-head result. Notre Dame wasn’t thrilled. They announced they’re skipping a bowl game this season after getting left out (see down below). Alabama came in at No. 9 with three losses, mainly because that win in Athens earlier in the year still matters to the selection committee.

Once the bracket came out, the national title odds shifted again. Indiana sits around +275 at sportsbooks, with Ohio State close behind at +325. Georgia is near +450, and Oregon is in that +700 range. Texas Tech sits around +900, Ole Miss is out near +1800, and Alabama landed closer to +3000. Just looking at the numbers, you can see the separation between the top group and everyone else.

Indiana has a pretty manageable setup in the bracket. They don’t run into Oregon or Georgia unless they’re deep into it, which is what you’d want if you’re sitting at No. 1. Ohio State’s side isn’t the worst, but the Buckeyes haven’t been playing their best ball lately. Georgia might have a tougher bracket, but they’ve been dealing with different styles the last few weeks and handled most of it well.

If there’s a team outside the top two that looks built for this thing, it’s probably Oregon. They start with James Madison, and if the seeds hold up, they’d see Texas Tech next. The matchup works for Oregon because their offense hits fast and usually forces defenses to adjust sooner than they want. Oregon doesn’t need some lucky bounce or a weird finish. If they play the way they have been, they’ll give themselves a real chance.

The weekend moved some pieces around, but the main group of contenders looks the same. Indiana and Ohio State are in good spots. Georgia is still built for these kinds of games. And Oregon has enough balance to stay in the mix into January. The bracket is bigger now, but the top of the board didn’t change much.

Notre Dame takes their ball and goes home