Army–Navy Preview and Pick: Why This Game Will Be Close

The Army–Navy game never really cares about records, and this year is no different. Navy comes in at 9–2 and ranked 22nd, while Army is 6–5. Both teams already know they’re going to bowl games. They play Saturday afternoon in Baltimore, with the kickoff at 3:00 p.m. ET. Navy is favored -6, and the total is sitting at 38.5.

If you just line the teams up, Navy clearly has more on offense. Blake Horvath gives them something Army doesn’t see every week. He’s thrown for close to 1,400 yards with nine touchdowns, and he’s also run for over 1,000 yards with 14 scores. That combination alone changes how defenses have to play the Midshipmen. 

Alex Tecza has been a big part of the offense. Tecza has over 770 rushing yards and averages 5.8 yards per carry. Navy also has a receiver who can stretch the field. Eli Heidenreich has 805 yards receiving, with four TDs, and an average of 20.4 per catch, and his longest reception went for more than 80 yards. That’s usually the difference in this game — one mistake, one busted assignment, and suddenly you’re behind.

Army is different. The Black Knights want to run it, over and over, and are comfortable doing just that. They lead the country in rushing attempts, and quarterback Cale Hellums is at the center of the entire offense. Hellums has 1,078 yards rushing with 15 touchdowns. Hellums can throw when he needs to, but Army is perfectly happy running far more than passing and making the game shorter by eating up the clock.

Where Army has helped itself late in this season is on defense. The Black Knights have won five of their last seven games, and most of those wins were close. Air Force, Temple, and UTSA were all tight battles to the end. They have tackled, avoided big mistakes, and made teams work hard. Andon Thomas has been all over the field, and the secondary has been steady enough to avoid the one play that usually breaks this rivalry open.

Turnovers always matter here, and neither team has been sloppy. Army has lost five fumbles all season. Navy has lost six. That usually means special teams end up deciding things. Both kickers have been reliable, and with cold weather and a little wind expected, one kick could easily swing the momentum.

Navy likely wins the game. They have more ways to score and more options if something goes wrong. But Army has been playing better defense than people realize, and the Black Knights have shown they can hang around even when things appear tough.

In a game like this, asking the favorite to win by a touchdown is a tough nut to crack.

Pick: Army Black Knights +6 – Bet this game at one of these sportsbooks now