Iowa State’s Unexpected Jump: How the Cyclones Went From Solid to Serious

Iowa State was supposed to be good this season. That much was clear back in October. What wasn’t clear was just how fast the Cyclones would force their way into the national picture.

When the season opened, Iowa State was sitting at No. 16 in the AP Poll. That felt about right at the time. The Big 12 is tough every year, and most people figured the Cyclones would be competitive but not quite ready to run with the very top teams. The betting markets saw it the same way. Iowa State opened the year as more of a long shot, with national title odds in the +3000 (BetOnline.ag) range or longer, well outside the inner circle.

A few weeks later, that thinking doesn’t match reality.

The game that flipped everything was the road trip to Purdue. Iowa State didn’t just win — they walked into Mackey Arena and blew out the No. 1 team in the country. That kind of result doesn’t need much explanation. If you can do that away from home, people stop wondering if you’re “for real.” After that game, the Cyclones shot up to No. 4 in the AP Poll, and suddenly the conversation around them changed.

That win wasn’t standing alone, either. Iowa State backed it up with other strong performances, including a solid showing against Iowa and an earlier neutral-court win over Creighton. The pattern matters. These weren’t lucky nights or hot shooting streaks. The Cyclones have shown they can handle different styles and different environments without falling apart.

One of the biggest reasons this team has surprised people is the offense. The defense was expected to be good, and it has been, but the scoring has come more easily than many thought it would. Joshua Jefferson, Milan Momcilovic, and Tamin Lipsey have given Iowa State steady production, and ball movement has been better than expected. Shooting has held up, and half-court sets have not been rushed.

Momcilovic has been especially important during the climb. He’s had several games where his scoring made life easier for everyone else, including that Purdue win. When a player can score in different ways against elite competition, it raises the ceiling for the whole team.

The betting markets have adjusted right along with the rankings. Iowa State’s national title odds have shortened in a big way. Right now, the Cyclones sit around +1200 to win it all. That puts them in the same general neighborhood as teams like Michigan, Arizona, Duke, and Gonzaga, all sitting somewhere between +750 and +1300 at BetOnline. That’s a major jump from where Iowa State started the season and a clear signal that oddsmakers now see them as a real contender, not just a nice story.

In simple terms, Iowa State has gone from “solid Big 12 team” to “team you have to take seriously in March.” The rankings reflect it. The odds reflect it. And the wins back it up.

There’s still a long road ahead, and Big 12 play will test everyone. But Iowa State has already done the hard part — changing expectations. They weren’t supposed to be here yet, and they didn’t wait to be invited.