2025–26 NBA MVP Race: Who’s Leading and Who’s Moved Since the Season Opened

When NBA MVP odds first hit the board in early October, the market leaned heavily on familiar names. Nikola Jokic opened as the favorite at most sportsbooks, generally priced around +200, with Luka Doncic close behind in the +350 to +400 range. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was respected but not crowned yet, opening closer to +250 to +300 depending on the sportsbook.

A couple of months into the season, that order has flipped.

Right now, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is sitting on top of the MVP board. His odds have shortened all the way to around -105, which tells you just how strong the market’s conviction has become. That’s a huge move from where he started, and it reflects more than just his box-score production. Oklahoma City has been one of the league’s best teams, and Shai has been the clear catalyst of that success.

That combination matters in MVP betting. Voters and oddsmakers rarely separate individual dominance from team results. Once the Thunder established themselves near the top of the West and Shai continued delivering night after night, his price didn’t just drift lower; it collapsed.

Jokic remains the main challenger, even if he’s no longer the favorite. After opening around +200 at BetOnline, he now sits closer to +190. That doesn’t sound like much movement, but it actually says a lot. Jokic hasn’t faded at all. He’s still producing at an elite level and doing what he’s always done for Denver. The difference is that someone else has simply checked more boxes so far.

If the season ended today, Jokic would be a perfectly reasonable MVP pick. The market just prefers the story unfolding in Oklahoma City again this season.

Luka Doncic is the third name that consistently comes up, and his odds tell an interesting story. He opened the season around +400 to +450, with some hesitation mixed in due to early injuries and questions about how the Lakers would settle around him. Today, he’s still priced around +450, but for very different reasons.

Instead of uncertainty, his odds now reflect competition. Luka has been excellent, the Lakers are competitive, and his usage and production are exactly what you’d expect from an MVP candidate. What’s holding his price steady is that he’s chasing two players who already have both elite numbers and stronger team positioning.

Beyond the top three, the gap widens quickly. Cade Cunningham opened the season in the +5000 range and now sits closer to +8000, showing that while his play has been impressive, Detroit’s record still limits his MVP ceiling. Victor Wembanyama, who began the year as a true longshot well beyond +10000, has drawn attention with several dominant performances but remains priced around +20000 at BetOnline.ag due to his team’s play.

Other familiar names like Jalen Brunson, Anthony Edwards, and Donovan Mitchell remain deep down the board. Their odds reflect just how difficult it is to break into the MVP race without both standout numbers and a highly competitive team.

One other factor bettors can’t ignore this season is availability. The games-played requirement is stricter now, and futures markets are far less forgiving when a player misses extended time. Durability matters more than ever when backing a favorite.

Compared to October, the MVP race has tightened at the top and stretched everywhere else. Shai has moved from contender to frontrunner, Jokic remains the constant threat, and Doncic sits in a position to capitalize if the standings shift. The odds now reflect what’s actually happening on the floor — which is usually when the MVP market starts to make the most sense.