One Week Left and the MVP Picture Is Finally Clear

There’s only one week left in the regular season, and at this point, the MVP discussion feels a lot simpler than it did even a few days ago. That doesn’t mean nothing can happen, but the list of realistic outcomes has gotten pretty short heading into Week 18.

A big reason for that was what happened in Week 17. Drake Maye didn’t just have a good game; he grabbed control of the conversation. Five touchdown passes against the Jets put a spotlight on a season that’s been trending in this direction for a while. At the same time, Matthew Stafford had the kind of night that sticks with voters for the wrong reasons. Three interceptions in a loss to Atlanta wiped out much of the cushion he’d built earlier in December.

Put those two performances together, and the market followed quickly.

Right now, Maye is the clear favorite, and it hasn’t taken much squinting to get there. He’s been productive all season, but more importantly, he’s been steady. The numbers are strong, accuracy has been present, and mistakes have remained limited. That combination tends to matter late in MVP races, especially when voters start separating great seasons from flashy stretches.

At this stage, it’s less about whether Maye deserves the award and more about what would have to go wrong for him not to win it. Short of a complete disaster in the finale against Miami, he’s probably done enough. A normal game is likely all he needs, especially with his Week 17 performance still fresh in everyone’s mind.

Stafford remains the closest challenger, but his path is narrow now. A week ago, he was in control. After Monday night, he’s chasing. Even if the Rams decide to play him in Week 18, something that isn’t guaranteed given their history with late-season seeding, he likely needs his best game of the year. And even then, he’d still need Maye to stumble.
That’s a tough ask this late in the season.

Behind those two, the rest of the field is mostly fighting for ballot placement. Trevor Lawrence and Caleb Williams still have opportunities to make noise if their teams finish strong, especially if seeding is on the line. Justin Herbert and Josh Allen remain respected names, and Allen, in particular, always has the ability to remind people what he looks like at his best.

Still, those cases are more about third- or fourth-place votes than a serious push for the top spot. The gap has widened too much over the past week.

Sam Darnold and Bo Nix round out the longer-shot group. Both have had impressive moments, but their situations work against them in MVP discussions. Their teams’ success has been tied heavily to coaching and defense, which tends to cap individual credit. A big Week 18 showing could get them noticed, but that’s likely where it stops.

At this point, it’s hard to see the vote swinging unless something strange happens in the final game. Maye took control when it mattered, and voters usually don’t overthink that. Week 18 can always surprise people, but this race feels close to wrapped up.

2025-2026 NFL MVP Odds End of Season

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