Where the Super Bowl Odds Stand Heading Into the Final Week

With one week left in the NFL regular season, the Super Bowl board has finally settled into something that makes sense. Not clean. Not quiet. But clearer. At this point, sportsbooks aren’t guessing anymore — they’re reacting to what teams have shown over four months of football and how much margin for error is left.

Seattle sits at the top of the board, and that alone tells you how strange this season has been.

The Seahawks enter Week 18 as the Super Bowl favorite at around +475. That jump didn’t come out of nowhere. They’ve stacked wins, handled pressure games, and keep finding ways to close out games. The overtime win against the Rams earlier this month changed the tone of the NFC West, and their follow-up win over Carolina locked it in. Thirteen wins ties a franchise high, and historically, teams that get to that number usually have something real behind it.

The big test is right in front of them. Seattle still has to deal with San Francisco, and the No. 1 seed is on the line. But from a betting perspective, this price reflects trust. The market believes Seattle can win games in different ways, which is what matters in January.

Right behind the Seahawks are the Rams at +550, and this is where things get interesting. A week ago, they were the favorite. Then came Monday night against Atlanta. Three interceptions, missed chances, and suddenly the shine came off. That doesn’t mean the Rams fell apart overnight. It just means the cushion they had is gone. They’re priced like a contender that still belongs — but one that can’t afford mistakes anymore.

Denver at +700 is quietly sitting there, and that is no surprise. The Broncos don’t wow you. They don’t flood highlight reels. They just don’t beat themselves. That matters late in the year, and sportsbooks have shown steady respect for them for months. This number hasn’t moved much because nothing about Denver has changed. They win the games they’re supposed to win and stay within themselves. That’s usually how deep playoff runs start.

San Francisco at +850 might be the toughest team to pin down. On one hand, there’s a real path to playing at home all the way through the Super Bowl, which would normally crush this number. On the other hand, the defense isn’t what it was earlier in the year. Injuries have piled up, and they’ve been leaking points in spots that feel uncomfortable for a team with championship expectations. Brock Purdy has been excellent since returning, but the overall setup feels tight. Huge upside, but very little breathing room.

New England sits next at +900 at BetOnline.ag, and this feels like a respect price more than a hype price. The Patriots are organized, disciplined, and clearly playoff-ready. What they haven’t done is grab the spotlight late in the season the way the teams above them have. They’re not being dismissed — but they’re not being chased either.

After that, the odds stretch fast. Philadelphia at 10-1 and Buffalo at 11-1 are still technically alive, but they need help and probably a clean run just to get back into serious conversations. Jacksonville and Houston follow, and while Houston’s defense has been elite, the market still seems hesitant to fully commit.

That’s where things stand heading into Week 18. Fewer questions. Fewer maybes. And a board that finally reflects who’s earned trust — and who still has something left to prove.