Fiesta Bowl: Miami vs Ole Miss Player Props & Betting Breakdown

The Fiesta Bowl matchup between Miami and Ole Miss sets up as a high-scoring game with defined offensive roles on both sides, which makes player props the most reliable way to approach this board. Instead of guessing margins, this game is better played through individual production tied directly to how each offense operates.

Miami enters the game as a 3.5-point favorite, with the total set at 52.5 points. Those numbers point toward steady scoring on both sides, but the clearest edges come from players whose usage has remained consistent all season.

Why Player Props Stand Out Here

Both teams rely heavily on a small group of offensive pieces, and neither coaching staff has shown much interest in spreading touches evenly. Miami’s offense funnels through its running game, while Ole Miss relies on its quarterback to move the ball through the air. That clarity matters when targeting props.

Mark Fletcher Jr. Over 88.5 Rushing Yards

Miami’s offense is built around Fletcher, especially in competitive games. He finished the regular season with 947 rushing yards at 5.4 yards per carry and has been even more productive in postseason play, posting 172 yards against Texas A&M and 90 more against Ohio State.

Ole Miss has been vulnerable on the ground, ranking outside the top 60 nationally in both rush success rate and EPA per rush allowed. Miami’s offensive line has consistently created lanes, and Fletcher doesn’t need explosive runs to clear this number. His workload and efficiency are enough on their own.

If Miami stays committed to the run, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t, Fletcher clearing 88.5 yards is one of the most straightforward bets on the board.

Trinidad Chambliss Over 265.5 Passing Yards

Chambliss has been the engine for Ole Miss since taking over as the starter. He threw for 3,601 yards this season with 20 touchdowns and just three interceptions, and he showed his ability in the Sugar Bowl with a 362-yard performance against Georgia.

Miami’s pass defense is solid, but it hasn’t faced many quarterbacks with Chambliss’ ability to extend plays and attack downfield. Ole Miss has also shown a willingness to let him throw in all game states, including late, when trailing or protecting a narrow margin.

Given the projected scoring environment and Ole Miss’ reliance on its quarterback, Chambliss reaching the mid-260s is a reasonable expectation.

CJ Daniels Anytime Touchdown

Daniels isn’t the focal point of Miami’s offense, but he remains a trusted red-zone option. He caught 33 passes for 351 yards and six touchdowns in the first half of the season before missing time with an injury.

In his most recent game, Daniels saw six targets and converted five of them, which matters more than raw target counts in this role. At plus money, this bet doesn’t require a breakout performance; it just requires one scoring opportunity, something he’s been reliable with when healthy.

Final Betting Takeaway

This game comes down to how the ball is actually distributed. Miami leans on Fletcher to control the offense, Ole Miss runs through Chambliss, and Daniels remains a situational scoring threat near the goal line. Those roles have been held all season, and they matter more here than guessing which team wins by a field goal or how the final margin looks.