NFL Divisional Round Player Props I Actually Like (Plus One Game Total)

Wild Card Weekend thinned things out fast. Some drama, some blowouts, and now we’re down to eight teams that all believe they’re still playing in February. This is usually the round where betting the games straight gets tricky. Everyone’s good, everyone’s prepared, and the margins shrink.

That’s why I usually gravitate toward player props here. Roles don’t suddenly change in January. If a guy is involved, he’s involved. And if a matchup has been soft all year, it doesn’t magically fix itself because the calendar flipped.

A few spots jumped off the board for me right away.

Jake Tonges over 4.5 receptions (+124) at Seattle

This one feels like the market is lagging behind reality. George Kittle is out, and that matters. When Kittle missed time earlier this season, Tonges didn’t just rotate in; he played well. Over those six games, he averaged right around five catches. That’s the exact number we’re being asked to beat.

Seattle hasn’t been great covering tight ends all year. They gave up catches to the position at a steady clip, especially when teams were forced to throw. San Francisco is a touchdown underdog here, which probably means Brock Purdy isn’t handing the ball off 30 times.

I’m not asking Tonges to turn into Kittle. I’m asking him to be on the field and be an option. 

Matthew Stafford over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+144) at Chicago

Stafford has been doing this all season. He led the league in passing touchdowns, tossed three more last week, and hasn’t exactly gone conservative in big spots.

Chicago’s comeback against Green Bay was impressive, but the first half still happened. Jordan Love threw for over 300 yards and four scores before halftime adjustments kicked in. Over the full season, the Bears allowed 32 passing touchdowns. 

If the Rams are scoring in this game, it’s coming through Stafford’s arm. At plus money, I’m willing to drop a few units on this one.

RJ Harvey anytime touchdown (-135) vs. Buffalo

This is the least exciting bet and probably the most reliable. Buffalo couldn’t stop running backs near the goal line all year. They gave up 18 rushing touchdowns to the position and didn’t tighten things up last week either.

Harvey isn’t just getting carries between the 20s. He’s heavily involved when Denver gets close, including as a receiver. Four of his five receiving touchdowns came inside the red zone. That matters.

He closed the regular season scoring in five of his final six games. Nothing fancy here. If Denver scores, he’s a strong candidate to finish the drive.

One total I’m playing: Rams vs. Bears under 50.5

This number feels a little inflated. Early money has pushed it up, but I’m not convinced this turns into a track meet.

Chicago’s defense looked lost early last week, then settled in once adjustments were made. There’s also a real chance the Rams slow things down if Stafford’s hand limits how aggressive they want to be. Los Angeles may prefer longer drives and fewer possessions rather than trading punches.

This doesn’t need to be ugly. It just needs to be controlled. I’ll take under 50.5 now and see where the number goes later in the week. Bet it now here

That’s it. Three player props I’m comfortable with and one total I can justify but will keep an eye on as the weekend approaches.

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