Three Player Props That Make Sense for Conference Championship Weekend

At this point in the season, there isn’t much left to figure out. We’ve seen these teams, these coaches, and these players enough times to know what they want to do when it matters. That’s why the player prop market is usually more interesting than sides this late in the year.

Roles don’t suddenly change in January. Usage patterns don’t flip overnight. If a number is off, it’s usually because the matchup or the situation is being oversimplified. That’s the case with a few props on this weekend’s board.

AFC Championship Game

Drake Maye under 6.5 rushing attempts (-108)

Drake Maye’s rushing ability is real, but his carry totals are more matchup-dependent than people think. He can run when he needs to, but he doesn’t default to it, especially against defenses that generate pressure without forcing him to escape constantly.

Denver fits that description. The Broncos are near the top of the league in pressures but opposing quarterbacks don’t rack up a ton of rushing attempts against them. Most of the time, quarterbacks get the ball out or take what’s available underneath rather than taking off.

Maye’s own numbers line up with that. Even in games where he’s been pressured a lot, his rushing attempts stay fairly contained. There haven’t been many situations where he’s had to abandon the structure of the offense and run repeatedly.

With a Super Bowl trip on the line, it’s reasonable to expect New England to be careful with its quarterback. That usually shows up in play-calling and decision-making, and it tends to keep rushing attempts from creeping too high.

NFC Championship Game

Kenneth Walker III under 20.5 rushing attempts (-125)

With Zach Charbonnet out, the first reaction is to assume Kenneth Walker III is in line for a massive workload. On paper, that makes sense. In reality, Seattle hasn’t treated Walker like a 25-carry back all season.

Walker hasn’t reached 20 rushing attempts in any game this year. That includes games where Charbonnet didn’t play or barely saw the field. Even when Walker was effective, the Seahawks were content keeping his carry count in the mid-to-high teens.

Part of that is game flow, and part of it is how Seattle uses him. When Charbonnet isn’t around, Walker’s role in the passing game grows. His target share jumps, which naturally pulls snaps away from straight rushing attempts. The team has also shown they’re comfortable rotating other backs to spell him, even in important games.

The matchup doesn’t push things toward heavy volume either. The Rams have been fairly stingy when it comes to allowing running backs to pile up carries. Only one back all season has hit 21 or more against them, and that came in a game that got out of hand early. In a conference title game that usually does not happen.

Puka Nacua over 7.5 receptions (-118)

On the Rams’ side, Puka Nacua’s role is about as stable as it gets. He’s been the key piece of the passing offense all season, and that hasn’t changed in the postseason. His target share is massive, and it actually grows in games where Matthew Stafford needs to move the chains consistently.

Seattle’s coverage tendencies also funnel throws toward Nacua’s areas of the field. This will be the third meeting between these teams, and by now there’s no mystery about who Stafford trusts. If the Rams are throwing at any kind of normal volume, Nacua is going to be heavily involved again.