Two MLB Futures I’m Playing Before Opening Day

The 2026 MLB season starts March 25, and I always like to grab a couple of numbers before the market really tightens up. Once spring headlines start rolling and money pours in, the softer edges disappear. After staring at the board for a bit, two win totals stand out to me, one I’m fading and one I’m backing.

And yes, fading the Dodgers feels strange to say out loud.

Dodgers Under 103.5 Wins (-112)

I don’t usually bet against my favorite team. But 103.5 wins is asking for a near-perfect season.

Over the last three years, the Dodgers have won 93, 98, and 100 games. That’s elite consistency. It’s also still short of this number. More importantly, the Dodgers don’t approach the regular season like a team chasing every last win. They manage workloads carefully. Pitchers get extra rest. Veterans get scheduled days off. The organization clearly prioritizes being healthy in October over stacking regular-season victories.

And it’s worked.

To clear 103.5, everything has to go right. Health, bullpen stability, and no extended slump in the middle of summer. Even great teams usually settle somewhere in the high 90s because 162 games are simply a grind.

There’s also the age factor. Freddie Freeman is 36. Mookie Betts is 33. Still stars, absolutely. But small dips over six months matter when you’re being asked to reach 104 wins.

I still think the Dodgers are one of the best teams in baseball. I just see them more in the 97-to-100 range again. That’s a fantastic season. It just doesn’t cash this over.

Tigers Over 85.5 Wins (-115)

Detroit is the opposite situation. The number feels light for what this roster looks like on paper.

The rotation is the main reason. Tarik Skubal is already one of the best arms in the American League, and adding Framber Valdez gives the Tigers a legitimate one-two punch. Behind them, Jack Flaherty misses bats, Reese Olsen quietly posted a strong ERA last season, and Casey Mize provides steady innings. That kind of depth across five spots wins games in a division where not every opponent can match it.

Strong starting pitching creates a high floor. It keeps you competitive almost every night and shortens the strain on the bullpen.

Speaking of the bullpen, Detroit’s isn’t flashy, but it’s solid and balanced. That matters when you’re betting an over in the mid-80s. Turning close games into wins is the difference between 83 victories and 88.

Offensively, the Tigers don’t need to lead the league in runs. Riley Greene continues to develop. Spencer Torkelson has real power. Kerry Carpenter is entering his prime years. Colt Keith is improving. It’s not overwhelming, but it’s more than enough when paired with reliable pitching.

An 86-win season isn’t a stretch here. Compared to a Dodgers total that feels inflated, Detroit’s looks attainable.

These aren’t flashy picks. They just make sense when you look at how the season is likely to unfold.