The NBA MVP Race Isn’t Settled Anymore

A month ago, this felt wrapped up. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had built real separation in the betting markets and Oklahoma City kept winning. Now he’s still the favorite at -140, but it doesn’t feel nearly as firm as it once did.

Injuries change everything this time of year. SGA’s abdominal strain hasn’t been catastrophic, but it’s enough to tighten the conversation. With the 65-game rule hanging over the award, availability isn’t just a footnote anymore. It’s central to the race.

Nikola Jokic sits at +270 and, as usual, he’s steady. The numbers are there. The impact is obvious. But here’s the catch — he can’t afford much more time off. One tweak, one cautious rest stretch, and the math goes against him. It’s strange to think durability might decide an MVP award, but that’s where this race is drifting.

Cade Cunningham at +550 feels like the biggest momentum play on the board. Detroit’s rise has reshaped how people view his season. MVP voting has always leaned heavily toward team success, and if the Pistons stay near the top of the East, his case becomes much easier to sell. It’s not just the stat line. It’s the shift in expectations.

Victor Wembanyama is the name forcing sportsbooks to adjust. He’s climbed to +2500, and that shift reflects real momentum. He’s putting up 24.3 points, 11.2 rebounds, and leading the league in blocks. He’s likely Defensive Player of the Year. And San Antonio is suddenly relevant in the West. That combination is often what matters.

But again, games played. Wembanyama has already missed 14. Earlier in the season he was on a minutes restriction. Those details don’t disappear when ballots are filled out.

Luka Doncic has slid to +4000 at sportsbooks, and that feels tied more to team positioning than individual brilliance. He’s scoring at an elite rate, yet if the Lakers settle into the middle of the playoff bracket, history suggests that hurts him. MVP voters don’t typically reward players on fifth seeds.

What makes this race different now is the lack of security. Nobody feels untouchable. SGA leads, technically. Jokic is close. Cunningham is rising. Wembanyama is hovering.

Two weeks from now, this board could look completely different.

And that’s what makes this interesting.

For the first time all season, this isn’t about who has been the best player from October through January. It’s about who stays on the floor, who keeps their team climbing, and who avoids fading at the wrong time.

Right now, SGA deserves to be favored. But -140 isn’t dominance. The MVP race hasn’t tightened because someone exploded statistically. It’s tightened because uncertainty crept in.