Sweet 16 Betting Trends to Consider

And then there were 16. After the first weekend of the 2026 NCAA tournament, 16 teams remain to compete for the coveted national championship. Iowa pulled off a dramatic upset of reigning champion Florida on Sunday to knock out the first No. 1 seed. The three others remain.

The biggest upset of the Round of 64 was No. 12 High Point’s 83-82 win over No. 5 Wisconsin. The biggest story of the first two rounds is Texas. The Longhorns got into the tournament as a No. 11 seed and had to win a play-in game in Dayton just to get to the Round of 64.

After beating NC State 68-66 in the play-in game, Texas pulled off upsets of No. 6 BYU and No. 3 Gonzaga. Now, the Longhorns will face No. 2 Purdue in a West Region semifinal on Thursday, March 26.

The Longhorns are not the first team to win a play-in game and advance to the Sweet 16. It’s one of many trends that bettors should consider as they head into the second weekend of the NCAA tournament.

From Play-In to Sweet 16

Texas’ run to the Sweet 16 is not unprecedented. Three other teams entered an NCAA tournament as an underdog in the First Four, Round of 64, and Round of 32 and won all three games.

Syracuse accomplished the feat in 2018 and LaSalle did it in 2013. The most memorable is the 2011 VCU Rams who won those first three games and then won two more to make it to the Final Four. Both Syracuse and LaSalle lost their Sweet 16 game.

For the record, Texas is the ninth team to qualify for the Sweet 16 after having pre-tournament odds of +100000 or higher to win it all. Of the previous eight teams, only one made the Elite 8. That was Saint Peter’s in 2022.

Texas was given +150000 odds to win this year’s Big Dance. Currently, those futures odds are down to +25000 at BetOnline.ag, which are the highest odds of all 16 teams remaining in the tournament.

Speaking of Futures

The pre-tournament favorite has won the NCAA title 11 times since 2000, including each of the past two seasons. Florida was the pre-tournament favorite last year and UConn was in 2024. Both teams, of course, went on to win titles.

This season, it was a back-and-forth race down the stretch but entering the tournament it was Duke that was the betting favorite on Selection Sunday. The pre-tournament favorite has not won three consecutive tournaments since the NCAA started seeding teams in 1978. Duke is a 6.5-point favorite against St. John’s at Everygame.eu on Friday, March 27, in an East Region semifinal.

What about preseason favorites? Well, before the 2025-26 college basketball season started, it was Purdue that was a +750 favorite to win it all this year. Houston followed at +900 and those two teams were the only ones given better than +1000 odds. Both teams are No. 2 seeds and both are still alive in the Sweet 16.

The last time the top two betting favorites met in a national final was in 2021. Baylor beat Gonzaga that year. Both teams were given +800 odds in the preseason to win the title. Prior to that, the last time a preseason favorite won a national championship was in 2009. North Carolina was a +500 favorite and won it all.

Since 2009, only five preseason favorites have made it to the Final Four. Kentucky actually did it twice in 2014 and 2015. North Carolina, of course, did it in 2009 and Baylor and Gonzaga in 2021.

Big Ten Has You Covered

In the grand scheme of things, the Big 12 and SEC were the conferences that most thought were the best in the country this season. This year’s Sweet 16 features three teams from the Big 12 and four from the SEC.

The conference with the most Sweet 16 entrants? That would be the Big Ten with six. Not only has the Big Ten won games, their teams have covered spreads too. The Big Ten is currently 11-5 ATS in this year’s tournament.

Over the last three seasons, the Big Ten has gone 11-5, 13-8, and 10-6 ATS. That record of 34-19 is by far the best mark of any conference over that span. Of note is Big Ten teams as favorites over the last three seasons. They are 27-9 ATS.

Keep an eye on Michigan, a 10.5-point favorite over Alabama, and Purdue, a 6.5-point favorite over that Texas team that has been the surprise of this tournament. Nebraska faces off with another Big Ten foe, Iowa. The two teams split two games this season. The Cornhuskers are currently 1.5-point favorites.

Big Totals

It is not often that you see a Sweet 16 game with a total in the high 160s. It’s even rarer when a  total gets into the 170s. The current total in the Michigan-Alabama game is 175.5. That’s not all that surprising.

Alabama leads the nation in scoring (91.6 ppg) and is one of the fastest-paced teams (6th, 76.9) as far as possessions per game. Michigan also plays fast (top-50 in possessions per game, 73.3) and is fourth in the nation in scoring (87.4 ppg).

If this game total closes at 175.5, it would tie for the highest in NCAA tournament history. The other game was in the 1996 tourney, which was 30 years ago. Over the last 30 years, there have only been six games with a closing total of 170 or higher. Five of the six have occurred in the last two seasons and all five involve Alabama.

Big Dog Hogs

Arkansas head coach John Calipari has coached numerous NCAA tournament games. His Razorbacks surprised some people by winning the SEC tournament to grab an automatic bid to the Big Dance.

Coach Cal’s Hogs were favorites in each of their first two games of this year’s tourney. Now, in the Sweet 16, the No. 4 Razorbacks are 7.5-point underdogs to No. 1 Arizona. Arkansas actually opened as a 9.5-point dog, the biggest line ever for a Calipari-coached underdog in an NCAA tournament game.

What’s interesting is that Calipari’s teams are 9-3-1 ATS the 13 times his teams have been underdogs in the NCAA tournament. If you limit it to just Calipari’s teams at Kentucky and Arkansas, his teams are 7-0-1 ATS. As an underdog of four points or more, his teams are 7-1 ATS.

Also of interest is Arizona head coach Tommy Lloyd. Lloyd’s Wildcats have been dominant in the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament. They are 8-1 SU, but in three trips to the Sweet 16 Arizona is 0-3 SU. They were favored in two of those games.

Houston Home Cooking

Kelvin Sampson has built a consistent winner at Houston over the last decade. The Cougars played in last year’s national final but lost to Florida. Sampson just might have a path back to this year’s Final Four.

Houston will take on No. 3 seed Illinois in a South Region semifinal on Thursday, March 26. The game will take place at the Toyota Center in Houston. This will be the 11th NCAA tournament game that the Cougars have played in the state of Texas. They are 7-3 SU in the previous 10.

It’s also the fourth time the Cougars will play in their home city. In NCAA tournament games played in Houston, the Cougars are a perfect 3-0 SU.

See Also: March Madness 2026: Sweet 16 Odds and the Case for Houston

West Region

Texas will take on Purdue in the West Region. Purdue head coach Matt Painter is 28-14 ATS in 42 tournament games. However, his teams are 23-7 ATS in the first two rounds but just 5-7 ATS in the Sweet 16 or later. It should be noted that since the start of the 2024 tournament, Painter’s teams are 9-0 ATS as a favorite with an average cover margin of 7.1 points.

As mentioned, Texas is one of the rare teams to make it to the Sweet 16 after winning a First Four game. Only five did it before the Longhorns. All five teams were underdogs and went 3-1-1 ATS. Two of those teams were dogs of +6 or higher (Syracuse 2018, UCLA 2021). Both teams covered.

Also of note, Texas head coach Sean Miller has been an underdog in 15 NCAA tournament games. His teams are 11-4 ATS, including 3-0 SU and ATS this year.

South Region

Iowa and Nebraska will meet for the third time this season on Thursday, March 26, in a South Region semifinal. The two teams split the two games this season with the home team winning each.

Nebraska head coach Fred Hoiberg’s teams have a track record of success in March, going 34-20-2 ATS.

Iowa is fresh off beating Florida as a 10.5-point underdog. The Hawkeyes will be the seventh team since the 2003 tourney to play a game in the Sweet 16 or later coming off a double-digit point spread upset. The previous six teams went 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS.

The Houston-Illinois game is also in this region and it’s worth noting that Sampson’s teams have not done that well later in tournaments. In the Sweet 16 or later, his teams are 4-8 ATS after going 13-7 ATS in the first two rounds.

As a favorite, Sampson’s teams are 22-5 SU in the first two rounds but 7-5 SU as a favorite in the Sweet 16 or later. Bettors might want to live bet the Cougars. Since March 1 of 2024, Houston is 59-5 SU when they hold a halftime lead. All five losses have come at a neutral site and Houston was favored in four of them.

The Case for Duke

Duke was the pre-tournament favorite and the Blue Devils got a scare in the Round of 64 from Siena. Duke took care of business in the Round of 32 against TCU. Duke has never lost during the first weekend of the tournament as a No. 1 seed. They have been a No. 1 seed 16 times now. In the previous 15 tournaments, Duke made the Final Four eight times.

If there is a strong trend associated with the Blue Devils, it’s the Under. With Jon Scheyer as head coach, Duke has played 13 tournament games. Ten of them have gone Under the total. In 15 Duke non-conference games this season, the Under is 12-3.

For the season, Duke’s O/U record was 12-24. Their opponent on Friday, St. John’s has an O/U record of 12-23. The Red Storm are a 6.5-point underdog currently. St. John’s head coach Rick Pitino has been an underdog of five points or more eight times in the Big Dance. His teams are 6-2 ATS with three outright wins.

The other game in the East Region pits No. 3 Michigan State against No. 2 UConn. It features two of the better coaches in college basketball. MSU’s Tom Izzo has been outstanding in NCAA tournament games, especially as a favorite. Izzo’s teams are 47-9 SU and 34-20-2 ATS as a favorite. The Spartans are actually a 2.5-point underdog to the Huskies.

Dan Hurley is the UConn head coach and he is 18-4 ATS in 22 NCAA tournament games as a head coach. In the Sweet 16 or later, Hurley’s teams are 8-0 ATS covering by an average of 13.6 points per game. The Huskies have done very well against Big Ten opponents this season – 6-0 SU and ATS – most recently beating UCLA in the Round of 32.

Free Throw Shooting Is Key

If you want to win the NCAA tournament, you have to be a good free throw shooting team. Teams that shoot 75 percent or higher from the free throw line have an advantage over opponents that do not.

Since the 2014 tournament, teams that shoot 75 percent or better are 148-98-4 against teams that shoot 74.9 percent or lower. That’s a 60 percent win rate.

First Half Unders

A strong bet in NCAA tournament games involves slow-paced teams. Instead of looking at the full-game Under, target the first half Under. Teams that average less than 70 possessions per game are not usually associated with high-scoring first halves.

In NCAA tournament games where both teams average fewer than 70 possessions per game, the first half Under has cashed 167 times in 300 games (six first halves ended in a Push). That’s a 57 percent win rate.

This year, bettors can target both games in the East Region. Houston is one of the best defensive teams in the nation and Illinois holds teams to less than 70 points per game. Houston ranks 327th in possessions per game. Illinois is 283rd.

Michigan State and UConn both play outstanding defense, ranking in the top-40 in points allowed per game. Both the Spartans and the Huskies prefer a half-court style of offense and rank 265th and 298th, respectively, in possessions per game.

Another game to keep an eye on is Nebraska-Iowa. Both teams are top-20 in points allowed per game. Nebraska ranks No. 269 in possessions per game. Iowa is dead last, 365th, in the nation. The Cornhuskers have the third-best first-half Under record (10-24) in the country. Iowa comes in at No. 10 (13-22). Nebraska are -1.5 favorites over Iowa at SportsBetting.ag