MLB Players to Watch in Home Run Props Early This Season

We’re fast approaching a month into the MLB season, which makes it the perfect time to tackle home run props before the line settles. Obviously, the initial pre-season projections, power performances from last year, and historical trends all play roles in how various players are bet pre-season. 

However, as we’ve seen in the past, each of these factors can be subject to inefficiencies, particularly when we factor in player development, positional shifts, and lineup composition.

For the lineup builders out there who are looking for some of the bigger hitters in the sport, having a handle on a player’s “profile” can be incredibly valuable. With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the bigger home run buyers and sellers throughout baseball.

Kyle Schwarber: The Left-Handed Power Threat

Kyle Schwarber has been one of the game’s best pull-power hitters, consistently ranking among the league leaders in home runs. 

All of his numbers have translated well to the big league level, as his fly-ball profile pairs perfectly with his ability to launch the ball to right field, a short porch at his home ballpark. 

With 343 career home runs, a .500 slugging percentage, and a .846 OPS, Schwarber has already established the kind of elite power profile that leaves little for fantasy managers to be worried about.

Schwarber has topped 40 home runs in multiple recent seasons, including 46 in 2022, 47 in 2023, and 56 in 2025, making him one of the easier sluggers to project from an oddsmaker standpoint. 

Given his high launch angle and bat acceleration, it’s likely that he continues to produce elite levels of power that may be underrated at the opening of the season. Additionally, he has posted respectable numbers against both right-handed and left-handed pitchers.

Cal Raleigh: The Catcher Defying Positional Norms

While elite home run production from a catcher is a relatively rare commodity, most industry projections tend to be very conservative with the Mariners’ backstop, Cal Raleigh. However, after studying his swing, there is little doubt that he possesses a far more dynamic profile than most anticipate. 

While he is a pull-heavy hitter, his use of loft should translate to consistently delivering doubles and home runs.

Because catchers are judged primarily on their ability to defend and endure, oddsmakers might be slower to buy into the promise of Raleigh, even as he delivers explosive numbers in the home runs department. Looking at props early in the season could be profitable as oddsmakers come around to how he’s upping the bar for his peers.

Even when considering his overall outlook, one must also consider the park he calls home and how it may impact his performance. For Raleigh, his home ballpark is fairly neutral, but his pull-side numbers support the idea that he can perform better in certain conditions. Overall, his playing time will be affected by how his catching cohort’s workload is managed.

Shohei Ohtani: Two-Way Star, A Full Season of Unknowns

The biggest change for Shohei Ohtani this year is that he is expected to take on a more complete two-way role.

After returning to the mound in 2025, Ohtani made 10 pitching appearances as the Dodgers gradually increased his workload. The Dodgers are seemingly using a projected five-man starting group for 2026, which creates some uncertainty with how it could impact his fantasy outlook offensively.

With a regular pitching schedule allowing for no more than 5 days of rest between starts, his at-bat total is very likely to be lower than what it would have been as a designated hitter. His 55 home runs in 2025 set a strong benchmark, though there is still reason for caution if he’s balancing that kind of power output with a heavier pitching workload.

For those evaluating betting markets like FanDuel home run props, a new element has been introduced for Ohtani’s odds.

Aaron Judge: Baseball’s Best Home Run Hitter

While Aaron Judge may still be the gold standard for the home run mark in the future, his historic season altered the landscape and left sportsbooks raising the bar for power hitters. However, are they asking too much from future candidates? 

Judge’s exit velocity and hard-hit rate remain among the best in baseball, helping explain why his power projection stays near the top of the market. While that’s pushed his price to the point where he is one of the game’s most expensive everyday power sources, there is also little room for error in any early-season projection of his output.

MLB narratives have noted that Aaron Judge’s home run outlook is affected by schedule volume, as postponements or cancellations can matter more when his season total is already priced at such a high level.

Dark Horses Entering the Home Run Conversation

Beyond the established names, early-season value in baseball odds markets often emerges among players whose projections have not yet fully adjusted. 

Eugenio Suárez represents the veteran presence in this group, bringing a track record of 30+ home run seasons. While age-related concerns may influence his projected totals, his power profile remains intact.

Junior Caminero, on the other hand, embodies the high-upside breakout candidate. With elite raw power and a limited major league sample size, his early-season totals may be set conservatively. This creates a scenario where his ceiling exceeds initial expectations if his development continues on its current trajectory.

Juan Soto adds another layer as a superstar adjusting to a new team environment. Changes in ballpark dimensions and lineup context can significantly influence his home run output, particularly if he benefits from improved protection or favorable hitting conditions.

Collectively, these players highlight a broader trend: early-season props on emerging or transitioning hitters often exhibit greater volatility as the market recalibrates expectations.

A Season of Possibilities

Navigating early-season home run props requires a balance between historical performance and evolving context. Established stars like Judge and Schwarber offer consistency, but their lines are often closely aligned with expectations. 

Meanwhile, players such as Raleigh and emerging threats introduce layers of variability that may not be fully reflected in initial projections.

Content reflects information available as of 2026/04/06; subject to change.