Search Website

Four Reasons Why the Spurs Win the 2026 NBA Championship

James Willis | June 1, 2026

The NBA Finals matchup between the San Antonio Spurs and New York Knicks may look closer than many expected a few months ago, but oddsmakers opened the series with San Antonio favored to win the championship. The Knicks arrive riding an 11-game playoff winning streak and fresh off one of the most impressive offensive runs ever by an Eastern Conference champion. New York posted a 123.3 offensive rating during its march through the East, the highest mark by an East representative since the current playoff format began in 2003.

Those numbers deserve respect. So does the fact New York scored efficiently against San Antonio during the season. But there are several reasons the Spurs will bring another title back to San Antonio.

Victor Wembanyama Changes Everything

Most championship series eventually come down to star power, and the Spurs have the best player on the floor.

Victor Wembanyama has already put together one of the most memorable postseason runs ever by a player his age. Through three playoff rounds, the 22-year-old has averaged 23.2 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 3.5 blocks while leading San Antonio in nearly every major category. Against New York this season, Wembanyama averaged 28 points, 13 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks while shooting over 62% from the field.

His impact goes well beyond scoring. Every possession changes when opponents know he is waiting near the rim. That influence often doesn’t show up in the box score, but it frequently changes games.

New York May Not Get the Same Looks Offensively

The biggest argument for the Knicks centers around their offense. It has been outstanding throughout the playoffs.

The question is whether those numbers can continue against a Spurs defense built around the league’s most dominant interior defender. New York leads playoff teams in points in the paint and restricted-area attempts, but San Antonio has consistently forced opponents away from the basket during the postseason. Opponents attempt far fewer shots at the rim when Wembanyama is on the floor, often settling for tougher perimeter opportunities.

The Knicks shot 40% from three during the Eastern Conference playoffs, and they may need a similar performance again. If those outside shots stop falling for even a game or two, the series could shift quickly.

Mitchell Robinson’s Health Remains a Major Storyline

Not every Finals storyline involves a superstar.

Mitchell Robinson’s broken pinky could become one of the most important developments of the series. Robinson averages just 5.5 points and 5.3 rebounds during the playoffs, but those numbers do not fully explain his value. He remains one of the league’s better offensive rebounders and plays a major role in helping New York generate second-chance opportunities.

The Knicks lead all playoff teams with 17.7 second-chance points per game, and Robinson is a significant reason why. Even if he is available, there is no guarantee he will be operating at full strength. Against a frontcourt led by Wembanyama, any limitation becomes magnified.

The Spurs Have Already Survived the Toughest Challenge

Championship teams usually face a defining moment before reaching the Finals.

For San Antonio, that moment came against Oklahoma City. The Spurs knocked out the defending champions in seven games and won a deciding Game 7 on the road. They also handled Minnesota earlier in the playoffs and repeatedly responded whenever momentum shifted against them.

There is value in surviving series like that. The Spurs have already faced elite defenses, hostile environments, and championship-level pressure. Those experiences tend to matter this time of year.

New York deserves credit for dominating the Eastern Conference, but San Antonio enters the Finals with the best player in the matchup, the stronger defense, and a playoff run that already included the reigning champions.

The Knicks will score points and make this series competitive. However, if Wembanyama continues playing at his current level and the Spurs succeed in slowing New York’s attack around the basket, San Antonio will finish the job.