Analyzing Over Unders in NFL Conference Championship Games
Scott Morris | January 16, 2018
In five days the conferences will have their championship games and the winner of these will move on to Super Bowl XLII (52 if you don’t speak Roman numeral). This late in the year the games on which to bet become much fewer so each game is dissected by bettors and handicappers that much more. Today we will look at the totals (over/unders) for the two games.
Jacksonville at Patriots 46.5 points
Head to head, using a test sample of the last ten games these teams have played, it has historically gone Under. The Over bettors went just 3-6-1. But, some of those games go back to before a single player on the two teams was even in the NFL. So, you have to look at stats like that with some skepticism.
The Under has been the winning play this postseason going 5-3 thus far. Many people are looking at Under for this game because of the cold conditions and the fact that defenses play tighter in the playoffs. The problem with the Under here is that New England scores points as well as any team in the league. For this thing to go Under Jax would have to keep New England from scoring much and if that turns out to be the case Jax may win the game if not just cover it.
Currently, we are leaning under as well. I think Jacksonville may go up to Mass and give the Patriots a game and to do that there will have to be some great defensive play. I can see a 21-17 final score here.
Minnesota at Philadelphia 38 points
The main factor that stands out here are the defenses. These two defenses are two of the best in the NFL. Minnesota allows just 16 points per game and Philadelphia allows just 17 points per game. Factor that in with the fact that both offenses are not starting their original starting QB’s from season start and you have to start thinking Under right away. The Over Under in the last ten games these two teams have played each other is Over 4-5-1 (dating all the way back to 1992).
As much as people hate betting Unders in big games, this is another one here we are thinking Under. A lot of punts, a lot of Fg attempts, cold weather, rushing the ball; all make for clock bleed off and Under type of scoring. At this point, which is still early in the week, we are thinking Under for this game as well and could see a 17-14 finish.
Conclusion
Unders seem like the theme of this years playoffs and with these two games being played outdoors in the north-east, we cannot help but to lean Under on both of them.
