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Angles and Trends for Final Four and National Title

March 30, 2016

The Final Four tips off on Saturday April 2 in Houston followed by the national championship game on Monday. There are a number of different angles and trends to look at as the four teams prepare to play this weekend.

The trends below all go back 20 years and are against the spread (ATS) unless otherwise noted.

Final Four

The No. 1 seeds favored by 4 points or more are 1-4 ATS the past four seasons that fits North Carolina.

Favorites of 4 points or more, that scored 80 points or more during the Elite Eight are just 7-14 ATS, which fits North Carolina.

Teams 4-0 ATS over their past four games played have gone 11-15-2 ATS, that would fit Villanova and Syracuse.

Teams with a revenge win on their mind are 4-11 ATS, which fits Villanova.

Teams from the ACC favored by 5 points or more are 1-4 ATS that fits North Carolina.

Favorites from the Big East are 1-3 ATS, which fits Villanova.

The underdog in a Big 12 matchup has gone 6-1 SU and ATS, which fits Oklahoma.

NCAA Title Game

The No. 1 seed favorite is 14-4 SU while 11-7 ATS.

The No. 2 seed is 3-7 SU while 4-6 ATS, but only 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS playing No. 1 seeds.

Seeds that are No. 5 or lower have gone 1-6 SU while 2-5 ATS.

Favorites of 5 points or fewer have gone 12-3 SU and ATS.

Teams that enter with a .850 or better winning percentage have gone 12-6 SU and ATS the past 17 seasons.

Since 2000, teams owning a .801 winning percentage or less have gone 3-7 SU and ATS.

Favorites that scored 80 points or more during the Final Four have gone 5-1 ATS.

Dogs giving up 60 points or more during a Final Four victory have gone 2-13 SU and 4-11 ATS.

Teams from the ACC are 5-1 SU as well as 4-2 ATS against No. 2 seeds or lower.

Enough numbers for now let the fun begin on Saturday.

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