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February 1, 2019

BCS Championship Game

It is finally here. The national championship game for the NCAA.  The 12-0 (2) Oregon Ducks face the 13-0 (1) Auburn Tigers. Auburn is favored by 2 points and the over/under is around 73.5.  They will play tonight at 8:30 pm EST at University of Phoenix Stadium in the BCS Championship Game.

The public is lopsided and all over this one with 66% betting on Auburn.  This is actually down from early last week when it was closer 75% on Auburn.  The line was a solid three points at most places last week as well. It has inched down to 2 at most places and some even have 1 and 1 1/2 (accurate as of 2:20 PM EST).  Both teams score near 50 points each!  And they are  by far, the two most prolific offenses in the country.  The defenses are a different story. This is what gives Oregon the advantage in my opinion.  Oregon’s defense allows 18 points per game and Auburn allows 24.  The defense of Oregon has more speed and the Line should be able to create more problems.  Oregon is more diverse and can win many different ways. Auburn will have to rely very heavily on their Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton.  I anything happens to him, the team is vulnerable.

Most people are counting on a barn burner as far as the scoring total is concerned, and that could easily happen.  However, my money is on Oregon +2.

Some stats:

Team records:
Oregon: 12-0 SU, 6-4-1 ATS
Auburn: 13-0 SU, 9-3 ATS

Oregon most recently:
When playing in January are 1-2
When playing on grass are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 10-0
When an underdog on the road are 4-6

Auburn most recently:
When playing in January are 5-3
When playing on grass are 10-0
After outgaining opponent are 10-0
When favored at home are 9-1

A few trends to consider:
Oregon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oregon’s last 6 games
Auburn is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games